Alcohol-related relative risk of driver fatalities and driver involvement in fatal crashes in relation to driver age and gender: An update using 1996 data
Alcohol-related relative risk of driver fatalities and driver involvement in fatal crashes in relation to driver age and gender: An update using 1996 data
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DOI：
10.15288/jsa.2000.61.387
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发表时间：
2000-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Voas, RB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zador, PL;Krawchuk, SA;Voas, RB
目的：使用最近的数据，重新检查和改进按年龄和性别划分的驾驶员参与致命车祸的酒精相关相对风险的估计值，作为血液酒精浓度（BAC）的函数。方法：Logistic回归被用来估计年龄/性别特定的致命碰撞参与的相对风险，作为BAC的功能，司机参与了致命的碰撞和司机致命受伤的碰撞，结合碰撞数据从死亡分析报告系统与暴露数据从1996年全国路边调查的司机。结果如下：一般来说，在致命的车辆碰撞参与的相对风险稳步增加，增加驾驶员BAC在每个年龄/性别组的致命受伤和幸存的司机。在16-20岁的男性驾驶员中，BAC增加0.02%估计会使致命的单车碰撞损伤的相对风险增加一倍以上。在0.08%-0.10%BAC范围的中点，致命的单车碰撞损伤的相对风险在11.4（35岁及以上的司机）和51.9（16-20岁的男性司机）之间变化。除极少数例外情况外，老年驾驶员在单车碰撞中受到致命伤害的风险低于年轻驾驶员，与同一年龄段的男性相比，女性也是如此。在可比较的情况下，结果基本上证实了现有的先前估计。结论：这是第一项系统地估计BAC在0.08%至0.10%之间的酒后驾车者的相对风险的研究（这些相对风险估计适用于BAC范围中点0.09%）。结果清楚显示，血液酒精含量低于0.10%的司机，对自己和其他道路使用者都构成极大的风险。
Objective: To re-examine and refine estimates for alcohol-related relative risk of driver involvement in fatal crashes by age and gender as a function of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) using recent data. Method: Logistic regression was used to estimate age/gender specific relative risk of fatal crash involvement as a function of the BAC for drivers involved in a fatal crash and for drivers fatally injured in a crash, by combining crash data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System with exposure data from the 1996 National Roadside Survey of Drivers. Results: In general, the relative risk of involvement in a fatal vehicle crash increased steadily with increasing driver BAC in every age/gender group among both fatally injured and surviving drivers. Among 16-20 year old male drivers, a BAC increase of 0.02% was estimated to more than double the relative risk of fatal single-vehicle crash injury. At the midpoint of the 0.08% -0.10% BAC range, the relative risk of a fatal single-vehicle crash injury varied between 11.4 (drivers 35 and older) and 51.9 (male drivers, 16-20). With only very few exceptions, older drivers had lower risk of being fatally injured in a single-vehicle crash than younger drivers, as did women compared with men in the same age range. When comparable, results largely confirmed existing prior estimates. Conclusions: This is the first study that systematically estimated relative risk for drink-drivers with BACs between 0.08% and 0.10% (these relative risk estimates apply to BAC range midpoints at 0.09%.) The results clearly show that drivers with a BAC under 0.10% pose highly elevated risk both to themselves and to other road users.