The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment
The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1281-2
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Zelazowski, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, N. W.;Brown, S.;Zelazowski, P.
气候变化在全球范围内的总体后果取决于影响在各区域的分布情况，这些影响具有多个层面。本文介绍了一个全球评估的潜在影响的气候变化在几个部门，使用一套协调的影响模型，迫使相同的气候和社会经济情景。影响指标涵盖水资源、河流和沿海洪水、农业、自然环境和人造环境等部门。根据四种SRES社会经济和排放情景评估了影响，并通过从21个全球气候模式构建气候情景来纳入预测气候变化模式的不确定性影响。在各种气候模型假设情景中，预测的区域影响存在相当大的不确定性，因此，对跨部门和跨区域影响的连贯评估必须分别基于每一种模型模式;例如，使用总体方法可以减少部门和指标之间的变异性。本文介绍了一个叙事评估的例子。根据这种说法，每年约有10亿人将面临水资源压力增加，约4.5亿人将面临河流洪水增加，另有130万人将被沿海洪水淹没。大多数地区的作物生产力将下降，大多数地区的住宅能源需求将减少，因为减少的供暖需求将抵消更高的制冷需求。全球对水资源紧张和洪水的影响主要在亚洲，但对中东北非地区的影响将更大。到2050年，尽管气温和海平面的变化相似，但不同排放和社会经济情景之间的影响正在出现差异，这些差异在2080年更大。然而，就所有指标而言，不同气候模型之间预测影响的范围要比排放和社会经济情景之间的范围大得多。
The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.