Locating and quantifying geological uncertainty in three-dimensional models: Analysis of the Gippsland Basin, southeastern Australia
Locating and quantifying geological uncertainty in three-dimensional models: Analysis of the Gippsland Basin, southeastern Australia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tecto.2012.04.007
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发表时间：
2012-06
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
M. Lindsay;L. Aillères;M. Jessell;E. Kemp;P. Betts
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Lindsay;L. Aillères;M. Jessell;E. Kemp;P. Betts
地质三维（3D）模型被构造为可靠地表示给定的地质目标。模型的可靠性在很大程度上取决于输入数据，并且对不确定性很敏感。本研究借由产生一套隐含的三维模型，探讨地质方位资料所带来的不确定性，这些模型是由方位量测所产生，并进行不确定性模拟。由此产生的不确定性与地质模型的不同区域可以定位，量化和可视化，提供了一个有用的方法来评估模型的可靠性。该方法是测试在吉普斯兰盆地，澳大利亚东南部，模拟地质表面的不确定性进行评估的自然地质环境。介绍了地层变异性的概念，并使用两种不确定性可视化方法对输入数据进行分析。通过地层变化的不确定性可视化旨在以有效的方式向地球科学家传达3D模型不确定性的复杂概念。不确定性分析确定，额外的地震信息提供了一个有效的手段，约束模拟地质和减少不确定性的地区接近地震剖面。在一个比较案例研究中量化了使用从不确定性可视化收集的信息实现的高不确定性区域的可靠性的改进。具体模型位置的不确定性被确定，并归因于地震和等厚线数据之间可能存在的分歧。根据这一信息，提出了对该模型的进一步改进和增加数据来源的建议。最后，提出了一种引入地层变异值作为地球物理反演地质约束的方法。
Geological three-dimensional (3D) models are constructed to reliably represent a given geological target. The reliability of a model is heavily dependent on the input data and is sensitive to uncertainty. This study examines the uncertainty introduced by geological orientation data by producing a suite of implicit 3d models generated from orientation measurements subjected to uncertainty simulations. The resulting uncertainty associated with different regions of the geological model can be located, quantified and visualised, providing a useful method to assess model reliability. The method is tested on a natural geological setting in the Gippsland Basin, southeastern Australia, where modelled geological surfaces are assessed for uncertainty. The concept of stratigraphic variability is introduced and analysis of the input data is performed using two uncertainty visualisation methods. Uncertainty visualisation through stratigraphic variability is designed to convey the complex concept of 3D model uncertainty to the geoscientist in an effective manner. Uncertainty analysis determined that additional seismic information provides an effective means of constraining modelled geology and reducing uncertainty in regions proximal to the seismic sections. Improvements to the reliability of high uncertainty regions achieved using information gathered from uncertainty visualisations are quantified in a comparative case study. Uncertainty in specific model locations is identified and attributed to possible disagreements between seismic and isopach data. Further improvements to and additional sources of data for the model are proposed based on this information. Finally, a method of introducing stratigraphic variability values as geological constraints for geophysical inversion is presented.