Iran's nuclear programme and the west
Iran's nuclear programme and the west
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伊朗核计划与西方
DOI：
10.1080/01436590600730776
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Adam Tarock
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adam Tarock
摘要 从近几个月的媒体报道和美国官员的声明来看，如果伊朗拒绝放弃其核能项目浓缩铀的合法权利，美国正在认真考虑或至少正在考虑对伊朗采取军事行动，华盛顿声称伊朗的核能项目是制造核武器的幌子。伊朗否认这一指控。本文讨论和分析此类袭击对伊朗社会的影响以及伊朗境外的政治影响。当前西方与伊朗之间的争端具有讽刺意味的是，在1979年伊朗革命之前的三十年里，欧洲人和美国人帮助、实际上是热心鼓励伊朗发展其核计划。文章解释了伊朗与欧洲三国谈判未能解决问题的原因。文章认为，即使伊朗核计划问题得到解决，两国之间长达27年的冲突也不太可能在不久的将来结束。对于华盛顿来说，游戏的名称是伊朗的“政权更迭”，要么通过军事手段，要么通过煽动内部混乱，希望发生内爆。但考虑到华盛顿在阿富汗和伊拉克遇到的政治和军事困难，实现这两个选择都存在很大问题。
Abstract Judged by the media reports and statements by US officials in recent months, the USA is seriously considering, or at least thinking about, taking military action against Iran, if it refuses to forgo its legal right to enrich uranium for its nuclear energy programme, which Washington claims is a cover for making nuclear weapons. Iran denies the allegation. The effects of such an attack on Iranian society and the political ramifications beyond Iran's borders are discussed and analysed here. The irony of the present dispute between the West and Iran is that, for three decades up to the Iranian revolution in 1979, the Europeans and Americans helped, in fact earnestly encouraged, Iran in the development of its nuclear programme. The article explains the reasons for the failure of talks between Iran and the European trio to resolve the issue. It argues that, even if the question of Iran's nuclear programme were resolved, the 27-year conflict between the two countries would be unlikely to end in the near future. For Washington the name of the game is ‘regime change’ in Iran, either through military means or through fomenting internal chaos, hoping for implosion. But considering the political and military difficulties that Washington is experiencing in Afghanistan and Iraq, achieving either of these options is highly problematic.