MONITORING CLINICAL-TRIALS - CONDITIONAL OR PREDICTIVE POWER
MONITORING CLINICAL-TRIALS - CONDITIONAL OR PREDICTIVE POWER
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DOI：
10.1016/0197-2456(86)90003-6
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发表时间：
1986-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
BLACKBURN, PR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
SPIEGELHALTER, DJ;FREEDMAN, LS;BLACKBURN, PR
在临床试验的过渡阶段，试验组织者可能希望使用初始系列患者的数据来判断进一步增加患者的可能后果。Halperin及其同事（Controlled Clin Trials 3：311 - 323，1982）建议计算继续试验的功效，条件是迄今为止观察到的数据以及试验开始时指定的零假设和备择假设。在这里，我们认为，这个想法应该扩展到获得的预测能力的审判，通过平均的条件功率相对于当前的信念有关的未知参数。虽然通常需要数值方法来评估必要的积分，但结果可以用图形表示，并使统计学家能够回答这样的问题："根据目前的数据，试验最终显示结论性结果的机会有多大？".
At an interim point in a clinical trial, trial organisers may wish to use the data on the initial series of patients to judge the likely consequences of further patient accrual. Halperin and colleagues (Controlled Clin Trials 3:311-323, 1982) have suggested calculating the power of a continued trial, conditional on the data observed so far and the null and alternative hypothesis specified at the start of the trial. Here we argue that this idea should be extended to obtain the predictive power of the trial, derived by averaging the conditional power with respect to the current belief about the unknown parameters. Although numerical methods are generally required for evaluating the necessary integrals, the results may be presented graphically and enable the statistician to answer the question: "With the data so far, what is the chance that the trial will end up showing a conclusive result?".