U.S. Resilience to Large-Scale Power Outages in 2002–2019
U.S. Resilience to Large-Scale Power Outages in 2002–2019
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.02.002
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发表时间：
2022-02
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Aman Ankit;Zhanlin Liu;S. Miles;Youngjun Choe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Aman Ankit;Zhanlin Liu;S. Miles;Youngjun Choe
长时间停电削弱了经济，威胁到公众健康。现有的研究通常局限于单一事件、停电原因或地区。在这里，我们提供了2002年至2019年美国大规模停电的最全面分析之一。该分析基于根据美国联邦规定收集的停电数据，这些规定涉及大停电（通常是输电系统），并排除更常见但较小的停电（通常是配电系统）。我们将数据分为四个停电原因和计算的可靠性指标，这是通常用于分配级的小停电，但用于分析大停电。我们的时空分析揭示了自2010年以来美国最具弹性的六个州，南部和东北部地区对自然灾害的电力弹性改善，以及西部电力协调理事会地区人口遭受的不成比例的大量人为攻击。我们的回归分析确定了几个统计上显着的预测和假设，美国的弹性大停电。此外，我们提出了一种新的框架，用于分析停电数据，使用差分加权和影响点，以更好地了解电力弹性。我们将精选数据和代码作为补充材料共享。
Prolonged power outages debilitate the economy and threaten public health. Existing research is generally limited in its scope to a single event, an outage cause, or a region. Here, we provide one of the most comprehensive analyses of large-scale power outages in the U.S. from 2002 to 2019. This analysis is based on the outage data collected under U.S. federal mandates that concern large blackouts, typically of transmission systems and exclude much more common but smaller blackouts, typically, of distribution systems. We categorized the data into four outage causes and computed reliability metrics, which are commonly used for distribution-level small outages only but useful for analyzing large blackouts. Our spatiotemporal analysis reveals six of the most resilient U.S. states since 2010, improvement of power resilience against natural hazards in the south and northeast regions, and a disproportionately large number of human attacks for its population in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council region. Our regression analysis identifies several statistically significant predictors and hypotheses for U.S. resilience to large blackouts. Furthermore, we propose a novel framework for analyzing outage data using differential weighting and influential points to better understand power resilience. We share curated data and code as Supplementary Materials.