Assessing discrimination of risk prediction rules in a clustered data setting.

Assessing discrimination of risk prediction rules in a clustered data setting.
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DOI:
10.1007/s10985-012-9240-6
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发表时间:
2013-04
影响因子:
1.3
通讯作者:
Lee ML
Lee ML
中科院分区:
数学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Rosner B;Qiu W;Lee ML

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AUC(ROC曲线下面积)是评估风险预测规则区分度的常用指标;然而,AUC 的标准误通常基于假设采样单元独立的 Mann-Whitney U 检验。对于眼科应用,需要根据眼睛特定的结果变量来评估风险预测规则,这些结果变量通常与其他眼睛高度相关,但并不完全相关(例如,个别眼睛进展为年龄相关性黄斑变性(AMD))。在本文中,我们使用扩展的 Mann-Whitney U 检验(Rosner 等人,2009)来处理簇内的子单元可能具有不同进展状态的情况,并评估在此设置中不同预测规则的区分度。基于 AMD 进展的数据分析和模拟研究都表明,这种扩展的 Mann-Whitney U 测试在评估眼睛特定风险预测规则的辨别力方面具有合理的准确性。
The AUC (area under ROC curve) is a commonly used metric to assess discrimination of risk prediction rules; however, standard errors of AUC are usually based on the Mann-Whitney U test that assumes independence of sampling units. For ophthalmologic applications, it is desirable to assess risk prediction rules based on eye-specific outcome variables which are generally highly, but not perfectly correlated in fellow eyes (eg. progression of individual eyes to age-related macular degeneration (AMD)). In this article, we use the extended Mann-Whitney U test (Rosner et al, 2009) for the case where subunits within a cluster may have different progression status and assess discrimination of different prediction rules in this setting. Both data analyses based on progression of AMD and simulation studies show reasonable accuracy of this extended Mann-Whitney U test to assess discrimination of eye-specific risk prediction rules.
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影响因子: 37.8
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