On the Cause of Recent Variations in Lower Stratospheric Ozone
On the Cause of Recent Variations in Lower Stratospheric Ozone
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DOI：
10.1029/2018gl078071
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发表时间：
2018-06
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
M. Chipperfield;S. Dhomse;R. Hossaini;W. Feng;M. Santee;M. Weber;J. Burrows;J. Wild;D. Loyola-D.-Lo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Chipperfield;S. Dhomse;R. Hossaini;W. Feng;M. Santee;M. Weber;J. Burrows;J. Wild;D. Loyola-D.-Lo
我们使用高度分辨率和全柱卫星观测和三维化学传输模式模拟来研究1998-2017年间随着臭氧消耗物质的减少而平流层臭氧的变化。在2016年低得多的数值之后，2017年极外低平流层臭氧显示出强烈的正异常。这表明存在很大的年际变异性，而不是像Ball等人最近报告的那样，出现持续下降的趋势。(2018，https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018)。观测到的臭氧变化很好地被整个平流层的化学传输模型捕捉到，并且在很大程度上是由气象学驱动的。模式敏感性实验表明，过去短期氯物种的趋势对臭氧变化的贡献很小。同样，天然溴化短命物种的温和趋势的潜在影响也很小。这些结果证实了大气动力学在多年时间尺度上控制极外低平流层臭氧方面发挥的重要作用，以及在平流层变化时监测臭氧分布的持续重要性。
We use height‐resolved and total column satellite observations and 3‐D chemical transport model simulations to study stratospheric ozone variations during 1998–2017 as ozone‐depleting substances decline. In 2017 extrapolar lower stratospheric ozone displayed a strong positive anomaly following much lower values in 2016. This points to large interannual variability rather than an ongoing downward trend, as reported recently by Ball et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐18‐1379‐2018). The observed ozone variations are well captured by the chemical transport model throughout the stratosphere and are largely driven by meteorology. Model sensitivity experiments show that the contribution of past trends in short‐lived chlorine species to the ozone changes is small. Similarly, the potential impact of modest trends in natural brominated short‐lived species is small. These results confirm the important role that atmospheric dynamics plays in controlling ozone in the extrapolar lower stratosphere on multiannual time scales and the continued importance of monitoring ozone profiles as the stratosphere changes.