Models of climatic normals for genecology and climate change studies in British Columbia
Models of climatic normals for genecology and climate change studies in British Columbia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.10.004
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发表时间：
2005-02-28
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Wang, TL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hamann, A;Wang, TL
内插气候常态图最近已成为许多类型林业研究的重要工具，例如研究树木对当地环境的遗传适应，模拟物种范围变化或气候变化情景下的森林生产力。在本文中，我们评估了两个广泛使用的气候模式不列颠哥伦比亚省的一般精度和区域偏差。我们讨论的限制，由于目前的“最先进的”PRISM气候模型的分辨率，并提供了新的方法，“智能”上采样的PRISM模型的研究，需要空间明确的气候数据。为了强调选择一个适当的气候模型和了解其局限性的重要性，我们提供了两个例子，其中基线气候模型导致误导性的预测生态系统的气候包络如何变化的结果，温度升高，以及树木生长如何应对气候变化。(C)2004 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
Maps of interpolated climate normals have recently become essential tools for many types of forestry research, such as studying genetic adaptation of trees to local environments, modeling species ranges shifts, or forest productivity under climate change scenarios. In this paper, we evaluate two widely used climate models for British Columbia with respect to their general precision and regional bias. We discuss limitations due to the resolution of the current "state of the art" PRISM climate model and provide new methodology for "intelligent" up-sampling of the PRISM model for studies that require spatially explicit climate data. In order to stress the importance of choosing an adequate climate model and understanding its limitations, we provide two examples where baseline climate models caused misleading predictions of how the climate envelope of ecosystems shifts as a consequence of increased temperature, and how tree growth may respond to climate change. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.