The impact of black carbon emissions from projected Arctic shipping on regional ice transport
The impact of black carbon emissions from projected Arctic shipping on regional ice transport
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-021-05814-9
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发表时间：
2020-06
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Xueke Li;A. Lynch;D. Bailey;S. Stephenson;S. Veland
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xueke Li;A. Lynch;D. Bailey;S. Stephenson;S. Veland
全球黑碳（BC）排放对北极气候演变的直接和间接影响已被充分记录。北极圈内BC排放的重要性不太确定。有鉴于此，开发了一套情景，模拟假设的分流75%的当前和预计的航运交通从苏伊士运河到北方海路（NSR）。这个实验表明，来自船舶的BC导致气候强迫的微小变化，不会影响整个北极的变化轨迹。然而，从苏伊士航线到NSR的强迫转变不仅影响海冰覆盖的区域演变，而且还导致区域反馈，在某些地方放大（如格陵兰海），在其他地方抑制（如拉布拉多海）人为气候变化下的海冰退缩。这些区域影响的主要机制是环流的变化，而不是直接的热力强迫。最重要的影响是远离排放源的，考虑到工业和运输活动向北极的扩展，这可能会对政策产生影响。
The direct and indirect effects of global emissions of black carbon (BC) on the evolution of Arctic climate has been well documented. The significance of within-Arctic emissions of BC is less certain. In light of this, an ensemble of scenarios are developed that simulate the hypothetical diversion of 75% of current and projected shipping traffic from the Suez Canal to the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This experiment shows that BC from ships results in a small change in climate forcing that does not influence the Arctic-wide trajectory of change. However, the shift in forcing from the Suez route to the NSR not only influences regional evolution of sea ice cover, but also results in regional feedbacks that in some locations amplify (e.g. Greenland Sea) and in other locations damp (e.g. Labrador Sea) the sea ice retreat under anthropogenic climate change. The primary mechanism underlying these regional effects is a shift in circulation rather than direct thermodynamic forcing. The most significant impacts are distal from the emissions sources, which is likely to have policy implications as the expansion of industrial and transportation activities into the Arctic is considered.