The Effects of Climatic Variations on Agriculture: An Analysis of Brazilian Food Exports
The Effects of Climatic Variations on Agriculture: An Analysis of Brazilian Food Exports
复制标题
气候变化对农业的影响：巴西食品出口分析
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-030-26759-9_19
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. B. S. O. D. Guerra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gisele Mazon;B. Mayer;J. Ribeiro;Sthefanie Aguiar da Silva;Wellyngton Silva de Amorim;Larissa Pereira Cipoli Ribeiro;Nicole Roussenq Brognoli;Ricardo Luis Barcelos;G. C. Parma;Jameson Henry McQueen;I. I. Berchin;J. B. S. O. D. Guerra
关于气候变化对巴西农业生产包括大豆和玉米作物影响的研究需要进行国家以下各级的分析，因为巴西幅员辽阔，气候、地理、生物群落和自然资源的可得性多种多样。因此，本研究旨在了解气候变化对巴西农业的影响，并了解用于作物生产的土地的扩张如何受到出口生产的影响。因此，提出了四个假设并进行了检验。对数据的描述性分析表明，出口大豆生产主要集中在一年的最后四个月，这表明其生产具有季节性。对所有变量（气候、大豆和玉米产量）的聚类分析表明，气候变量与粮食产量变量之间没有关系，因为这两组要素属于不同的组。用主成分模型（Kaiser准则或碎石样地准则）分析数据，也证实了气候变量与粮食产量的非相关性。在这种情况下，作物产量可能受到灌溉技术的影响，从而减少了对降雨模式的依赖，但本研究未考虑这一数据。
Studies on climate change’s impact on agricultural production including soybean and corn crops in Brazil require subnational analysis due to the large expanse of the country and its diverse climate, geographies, biomes and availability of natural resources. Accordingly, this study aims to understand the effects of climatic variations on Brazilian agriculture and to understand how the expansion of land dedicated to crop production is influenced by production for export. Accordingly, four hypotheses were created and tested. The descriptive analysis of the data showed that soybean production for exportation is heavily concentrated in the last four months of the year, which indicates the seasonality of its production. The cluster analysis of all the variables (climate and soybean and corn production) shows that there is no relationship between climate variables and grain production variables, since both sets of elements are in separate groups. The non-relationship of climate variables and grain production are also confirmed when the data are analyzed by the principal components model, either by the Kaiser criterion or by the scree plot criterion. In this case, it is possible that crop yields are influenced by irrigation technologies, which reduces the dependence on rainfall patterns, but this data was not considered in this study.