Prediction market accuracy in the long run
Prediction market accuracy in the long run
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007
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发表时间：
2008-04-01
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Rietz, Thomas A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berg, Joyce E.;Nelson, Forrest D.;Rietz, Thomas A.
“预测市场”是专门用来预测选举等事件的。虽然选举预测市场已经进行了近20年，但迄今为止，几乎所有关于效率的证据都将选举前夕的预测与最终的选举前民意调查和实际结果进行了比较。在这里，我们提出的证据表明，预测市场的长期表现优于民意调查。我们收集了1988年至2004年美国总统选举的全国民意调查，并询问民意调查或同期的爱荷华州电子市场投票份额市场预测是否更接近两大党投票分裂的最终结果。我们将市场预测与自1988年以来的五次总统选举的964次民意调查进行了比较。市场在74%的情况下更接近最终结果。此外，当提前100多天预测时，市场在每次选举中的表现都明显优于民意调查。(C)2008年，国际气象预报员协会。Elsevier B.V.出版，保留所有权利。
"Prediction markets" are designed specifically to forecast events such as elections. Though election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date nearly all of the evidence on efficiency compares election eve forecasts with final pre-election polls and actual outcomes. Here, we present evidence that prediction markets outperform polls for longer horizons. We gather national polls for the 1988 through 2004 U.S. Presidential elections and ask whether either the poll or a contemporaneous Iowa Electronic Markets vote-share market prediction is closer to the eventual outcome for the two-major-party vote split. We compare market predictions to 964 polls over the five Presidential elections since 1988. The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time. Further, the market significantly outperforms the polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days in advance. (C) 2008 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.