Questioning the empirical basis of the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2: New evidence from a panel stationarity test robust to multiple breaks and cross-dependence
Questioning the empirical basis of the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2: New evidence from a panel stationarity test robust to multiple breaks and cross-dependence
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.03.011
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发表时间：
2008-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Diego Romero-Ávila
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diego Romero-Ávila
本文研究了1960-2000年86个国家的人均CO2排放量和人均GDP水平的时间序列特征。为此，我们采用了一个国家的最先进的面板平稳性测试，其中包括多个变化的水平和斜率，从而控制横截面的依赖性，通过自助方法。我们的分析提供了明确的证据表明，人均GDP水平是不稳定的世界作为一个整体，而人均CO2 is被发现是制度明智的趋势平稳。对国家集团的分析表明，对非洲和亚洲来说，人均CO2最好用不稳定来描述，而人均国内生产总值似乎在一个间断的趋势附近稳定。此外，我们发现的证据制度明智的趋势平稳性，在这两个变量的国家组，包括美洲，欧洲和大洋洲。我们的分析结果进行了重要的影响，统计建模的环境库兹涅茨曲线的CO2，因为不同的顺序整合在两个变量作为一个整体的世界和非洲和亚洲的面板协整技术的有效性提出了质疑，假设这两个变量是非平稳和协整的。协整技术也不适用于美洲、欧洲和大洋洲的情况，这些国家的特点是人均国内生产总值和二氧化碳排放量在一个破碎的趋势附近保持稳定。当我们根据发展水平分析国家集团时，也会得出类似的结论。未能适当地调整数据的时间序列属性，不控制未知数量的结构性突变和横截面依赖性，可能是环境库兹涅茨曲线估计的脆弱性和缺乏鲁棒性的原因。
This paper investigates the time series properties of per capita CO2emissions and per capita GDP levels for a sample of 86 countries over the period 1960–2000. For that purpose, we employ a state-of-the-art panel stationarity test which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope, thereby controlling for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. Our analysis renders clear-cut evidence that per capita GDP levels are nonstationary for the world as a whole while per capita CO2is found to be regime-wise trend stationary. The analysis of country-groups shows that for Africa and Asia, per capita CO2is best described as nonstationary, while per capita GDP appears stationary around a broken trend. In addition, we find evidence of regime-wise trend stationarity in both variables for the country-groups consisting of America, Europe and Oceania. The results of our analysis carry important implications for the statistical modelling of the Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2, since the differing order of integration in both variables for the world as a whole and for Africa and Asia calls into question the validity of panel cointegration techniques which assume that both variables are nonstationary and cointegrated with one another. Cointegration techniques would not be appropriate either for the case of America, Europe and Oceania which are characterised by per capita GDP and CO2emissions being stationary around a broken trend. Similar conclusions are reached when we analyse country-groups based on levels of development. Failure to properly characterise the time series properties of the data by not controlling for an unknown number of structural breaks and for cross-sectional dependence could be responsible for the fragility and lack of robustness surrounding the estimation of environmental Kuznets curves.