Extremist Outbidding in Ethnic Party Systems is Not Inevitable: Tribune Parties in Northern Ireland
Extremist Outbidding in Ethnic Party Systems is Not Inevitable: Tribune Parties in Northern Ireland
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极端主义在少数民族政党体系中的出价并非不可避免：北爱尔兰论坛报政党
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9248.2008.00769.x
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
B. O’Leary
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Mitchell;Geoffrey Evans;B. O’Leary
种族竞争理论预测了种族分裂的政党体系中的离心极化。相反，我们认为，权力分享机构的激励措施，可以鼓励发展的选举战略的基础上'种族论坛呼吁'，其中各政党结合联合收割机强大的民族身份的代表性，增加实用主义的资源分配。我们测试这些论点在北方爱尔兰，并表明，虽然直接投票从温和的政党切换到表面上的“极端”政党的证据是初步符合出价过高的论点，民族主义和统一主义社区之间的态度趋同的主要政治问题。民主统一党和新芬党最近的选举成功可以用这些政党的“种族论坛”呼吁来解释。许多选民同时支持和平、繁荣和（越来越多的）权力分享，但也希望有最强有力的声音来保护他们的民族利益。民族论坛党的身份投票意味着一定程度的决心，在倡导民族群体的利益，但并不意味着增加两极分化所隐含的出价模式。与选民一样，民族论坛党可以同时务实（在资源方面）和不妥协（在身份认同方面），因此尽管表面上相反，北方爱尔兰的权力分享制度激励了抑制出价过高的向心力。
The ethnic outbidding thesis predicts centrifugal polarisation in ethnically divided party systems. We argue instead that the incentives of power-sharing institutions can encourage the development of electoral strategies based on ‘ethnic tribune appeals’ in which parties combine robust ethnic identity representation with increased pragmatism over resource allocation. We test these arguments in Northern Ireland and show that though evidence of direct vote switching from moderate parties to ostensibly ‘extreme’ parties is prima facie consistent with the outbidding thesis, attitudinal convergence between the nationalist and unionist communities on the main political issues is not. The recent electoral success of the DUP and Sinn Féin can instead be explained by these parties' ‘ethnic tribune’ appeals. Many voters simultaneously endorse peace, prosperity and (increasingly) power sharing but also want the strongest voice to protect their ethnonational interests. Identity voting for ethnic tribune parties implies a degree of resolve in advocating ethnic group interests, but does not entail the increased polarisation implied by outbidding models. Like their voters, ethnic tribune parties can be simultaneously pragmatic (with regard to resources) and intransigent (with regard to identity), so that despite appearances to the contrary, the power-sharing institutions in Northern Ireland incentivise centripetal dynamics that inhibit outbidding.