Structural Change Out of Agriculture: Labor Push Versus Labor Pull
Structural Change Out of Agriculture: Labor Push Versus Labor Pull
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DOI：
10.1257/mac.3.3.127
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发表时间：
2011-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Francisco Álvarez-Cuadrado;Markus Poschke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Francisco Álvarez-Cuadrado;Markus Poschke
经济发展进程的特点是大量农村人口向城市迁移，农业在产出和就业中所占份额不断下降。文献强调了这一结构变化过程背后的两个主要引擎：（i）农业技术的改进与恩格尔的需求定律的影响相结合，将资源从农业部门推出（“劳动力推动”假说），以及（ii）工业技术的改进吸引劳动力进入这一部门（“劳动力拉动”假说）。我们提出了一个简单的模型，这两个渠道的特点，并使用它来探索其相对重要性。我们评估了自1800年以来的美国时间序列和从19世纪世纪开始的13个工业化国家的样本。我们的研究结果表明，平均而言，“劳动力拉动”渠道占主导地位。这与最近文献中流行的建模选择形成对比。
The process of economic development is characterized by substantial rural-urban migrations and a decreasing share of agriculture in output and employment. The literature highlights two main engines behind this process of structural change: (i) improvements in agricultural technology combined with the effect of Engel's law of demand push resources out of the agricultural sector (the "labor push" hypothesis), and (ii) improvements in industrial technology attract labor into this sector (the "labor pull" hypothesis). We present a simple model that features both channels and use it to explore their relative importance. We evaluate the U.S. time series since 1800 and a sample of 13 industrialized countries starting in the 19th century. Our results suggest that, on average, the "labor pull" channel dominates. This contrasts with popular modeling choices in the recent literature.