THE SWEDISH CHILDHOOD DIABETES STUDY - AN ANALYSIS OF THE TEMPORAL VARIATION IN DIABETES INCIDENCE 1978-1987
THE SWEDISH CHILDHOOD DIABETES STUDY - AN ANALYSIS OF THE TEMPORAL VARIATION IN DIABETES INCIDENCE 1978-1987
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/19.1.141
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发表时间：
1990-03-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
WALL, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
NYSTROM, L;DAHLQUIST, G;WALL, S
瑞典儿童糖尿病登记册结合了对事件病例的连续前瞻性报告和对全国所有儿科医院记录的定期回顾性审查，并从1978年至1987年汇编了3838例病例。使用独立来源的效度测试显示确定度为100%。当将线性回归模型拟合到年发病率的自然对数时，发现女孩和男女加起来的发病率随着时间的推移显着增加。分析年龄、性别、日历年和出生队列的时间趋势及其相互作用。采用泊松回归模型。年龄和性别之间存在显著的年龄效应和交互作用。当考虑到年龄和性别的影响时，我们发现随着时间的推移，这种情况会显著增加。日历期间对队列效应有显著影响，而队列对方差的解释没有显著增加。性别和日历周期之间没有明显的相互作用，这表明两性的时间变化相似。不同年龄组的时间变异性也明显相似。观察到的儿童胰岛素依赖型糖尿病（IDDM）的增加影响男女和所有年龄组，有力地支持了环境因素在IDDM病因学中的重要性。
The Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register combines continuous prospective reporting on incident cases and regular retrospective review of hospital records in all paediatric departments in the country and has, from 1978 to 1987, compiled 3838 cases. A validity test using an independent source has revealed a degree of ascertainment of 100%. When fitting a linear regression model to the natural logarithm of the yearly incidence rates, a significant increase over time was found for girls and for both sexes combined. To analyse the time trend with respect to age, sex, calender year and birth cohort and their interactions. Poisson regression modelling was used. There was a significant age effect and interaction between age and sex. When these age and sex effects were taken into account a significant increase over time was found. Calendar period had a significant effect when adjusted for cohort effects whereas cohort did not add significantly to the explanation of the variance. There was no significant interaction between sex and calendar period indicating similar time variations for both sexes. The temporal variability was also apparently similar among different age groups. The observed increase of childhood insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) affecting both sexes and all age groups, strongly supports the importance of environmental factors in the aetiology of IDDM.