Changes in the factors contributing to the reduction of landslide fatalities between 1945 and 2019 in Japan
Changes in the factors contributing to the reduction of landslide fatalities between 1945 and 2019 in Japan
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1945年至2019年日本山体滑坡死亡人数减少因素的变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154392
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Kume Tomonori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shinohara Yoshinori;Kume Tomonori
山体滑坡是造成严重破坏和人员伤亡的自然灾害。日本成功地减少了山体滑坡死亡人数，是少数拥有山体滑坡死亡长期数据库的国家之一。在这项研究中，我们确定了 1945 年至 2019 年间导致日本降雨引发山体滑坡死亡人数下降的因素。我们研究了山体滑坡死亡人数的趋势以及 I、II、III、IV 和 V 时期（每个时期跨越研究期 15 年）以及 I-II、II-III、III-IV 和 IV-V 时期的六个因素。我们研究了山体滑坡次数（NL）以及死亡人数（NF）与山体滑坡次数之比（NF/NL）的趋势，并将死亡人数视为山体滑坡次数与死亡概率的乘积。第一期和第四期之间死亡人数持续下降；随着时间的推移，下降的速度有所下降。在 I-II 期，NF/NL 下降，而 NL 保持不变。家庭平均人数的减少、建筑结构的变化以及疏散人数的增加可能导致了 NF/NL 的下降。在 II-III 期和 III-IV 期，NL 也下降。 II-III期成熟森林面积缓慢增加。第三至第四时期，积极推行结构性措施（即硬性措施）。导致滑坡死亡人数减少的因素随着时间的推移而变化，这表明减少滑坡死亡人数的措施根据国家的成熟程度而变化。此外，我们发现第五阶段降雨量和 N 的增加，这可能表明未来滑坡死亡人数会增加。
Landslides are natural hazards that cause severe damage and human losses. Japan has succeeded in reducing the number of landslide fatalities and is one of the few countries with long-term databases of landslide fatalities. In this study, we identified the factors that contributed to the decrease in fatalities associated with rainfall-triggered landslides in Japan between 1945 and 2019. We examined trends in landslide fatalities and six factors for Periods I, II, III, IV, and V—each period spans 15 years of the study period—and for Periods I–II, II–III, III–IV, and IV–V. We examined the trends in the number of landslides (NL) and in the ratio between the number of fatalities (NF) and the number of landslides (NF/NL), and considered fatalities as the product of the number of landslides and the probability of fatalities. The number of fatalities decreased continuously between Periods I and IV; the rate of the decrease declined over time. During Period I–II,NF/NLdecreased, whereasNLremained unchanged. Decreases in the average number of household members, changes in building structure, and increases in the number of people evacuated may have contributed to the decrease inNF/NL. During Periods II–III and III–IV,NLalso decreased. During Period II–III, the area of mature forests increased slowly. During Period III–IV, the implementation of structural measures (i.e., hard measures) was aggressively pursued. The factors that contributed to the decrease in landslide fatalities changed with time, suggesting that measures for reducing landslide fatalities changed according to the degree of maturity of the nation. Furthermore, we identified increases in rainfall andNLin Period V, which might indicate a future increase in landslide fatalities.