Predicting Total Global Species Richness Using Rates of Species Description and Estimates of Taxonomic Effort
Predicting Total Global Species Richness Using Rates of Species Description and Estimates of Taxonomic Effort
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DOI：
10.1093/sysbio/syr080
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发表时间：
2012-10-01
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
Houlding, Brett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Costello, Mark J.;Wilson, Simon;Houlding, Brett
我们发现，在分类学权威的世界海洋物种登记册和生物目录数据库中，58万种海洋和陆地物种的描述率趋势在20世纪50年代之前是相似的。自那时以来，每年描述的海洋物种相对于陆地物种的数量有所增加，反映出对海洋的探索较少。从世纪中期开始，被描述的物种的累积数量一直呈线性，在1900年的十年中被描述的物种数量最多，在世界大战期间被描述的物种较少，活跃的作者也较少。自1960年代以来，有更多的作者描述了物种，表明更大的分类努力。自20世纪20年代以来，每个作者描述的物种越来越少，这表明发现新物种变得越来越困难。没有证据表明分类学家的个人努力有任何变化。使用非齐次更新过程模型，我们预测，24-31%至21-29%的海洋和陆地物种仍然有待发现，分别。我们将讨论为什么我们认为海洋物种只占地球上所有物种的16%，尽管海洋包含比陆地上更大的系统发育多样性。我们预测，地球上可能有180万至200万种物种，其中约30万种是海洋物种，大大低于一些先前的估计。
We found that trends in the rate of description of 580,000 marine and terrestrial species, in the taxonomically authoritative World Register of Marine Species and Catalogue of Life databases, were similar until the 1950s. Since then, the relative number of marine to terrestrial species described per year has increased, reflecting the less explored nature of the oceans. From the mid-19th century, the cumulative number of species described has been linear, with the highest number of species described in the decade of 1900, and fewer species described and fewer authors active during the World Wars. There were more authors describing species since the 1960s, indicating greater taxonomic effort. There were fewer species described per author since the 1920s, suggesting it has become more difficult to discover new species. There was no evidence of any change in individual effort by taxonomists. Using a nonhomogeneous renewal process model we predicted that 24-31% to 21-29% more marine and terrestrial species remain to be discovered, respectively. We discuss why we consider that marine species comprise only 16% of all species on Earth although the oceans contain a greater phylogenetic diversity than occurs on land. We predict that there may be 1.8-2.0 million species on Earth, of which about 0.3 million are marine, significantly less than some previous estimates.