Shape of species climate response curves affects community response to climate change
Shape of species climate response curves affects community response to climate change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/ele.13688
复制
发表时间：
2021-02-14
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Pinsky, Malin L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bonachela, Juan A.;Burrows, Michael T.;Pinsky, Malin L.
了解气候变化如何重塑群落组成对于解释和预测群落在时间或空间上的聚集模式非常重要。社区组成往往不完全符合当前环境条件的期望，导致社区与气候不匹配。本文将联合收割机数据分析与理论发展相结合，探讨物种气候响应曲线如何影响群落对气候变化的响应。我们表明，社区和气候之间的强烈不匹配可能出现在没有人口延迟或有限的物种库。使用物种响应曲线模拟的社区表现出类似的幅度在自然界中观察到的鱼类和浮游生物的时间变化，这表明没有整体延迟社区的变化，尽管大量的无法解释的变化，从社区集会和其他过程。我们的方法可以被认为是一个空模型，这将是重要的解释观察到的社区对气候变化和变异的反应时使用。
Understanding how community composition is reshaped by changing climate is important for interpreting and predicting patterns of community assembly through time or across space. Community composition often does not perfectly correspond to expectations from current environmental conditions, leading to community-climate mismatches. Here, we combine data analysis and theory development to explore how species climate response curves affect the community response to climate change. We show that strong mismatches between community and climate can appear in the absence of demographic delays or limited species pools. Communities simulated using species response curves showed temporal changes of similar magnitude to those observed in natural communities of fishes and plankton, suggesting no overall delays in community change despite substantial unexplained variation from community assembly and other processes. Our approach can be considered as a null model that will be important to use when interpreting observed community responses to climate change and variability.