Using data on social contacts to estimate age-specific transmission parameters for respiratory-spread infectious agents
Using data on social contacts to estimate age-specific transmission parameters for respiratory-spread infectious agents
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwj317
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发表时间：
2006-11-15
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Kretzschmar, Mirjam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wallinga, Jacco;Teunis, Peter;Kretzschmar, Mirjam
对于主要依赖于病原体通过小的传染性飞沫在人与人之间传播的疾病，传播参数的估计一直是有问题的。呼吸道特异性传播参数决定了这些呼吸道病原体将如何在人群中的不同年龄组中传播。对这些参数的价值进行估算，对于规划有效应对天花或流感等具有潜在破坏性的大流行病以及设计麻疹或腮腺炎等疾病的控制战略至关重要。在这项研究中，作者通过用自我报告的每人交谈伙伴数量的辅助数据来增加传染病数据，估计了特定年龄的传播参数。他们表明，使用基于这些自我报告的社会接触的传播参数的模型能够更好地捕捉观察到的地方性流行性腮腺炎感染模式，以及观察到的大流行性流感传播模式。按年龄分列的传播参数估计数表明，学龄儿童和年轻人的感染率最高，在完全易感人群中，在新出现的传染性传播流行病的初期阶段，对进一步传播感染的贡献最大。这些发现对控制未来新的间接传播的传染性病原体的爆发具有重要意义。
The estimation of transmission parameters has been problematic for diseases that rely predominantly on transmission of pathogens from person to person through small infectious droplets. Age-specific transmission parameters determine how such respiratory agents will spread among different age groups in a human population. Estimating the values of these parameters is essential in planning an effective response to potentially devastating pandemics of smallpox or influenza and in designing control strategies for diseases such as measles or mumps. In this study, the authors estimated age-specific transmission parameters by augmenting infectious disease data with auxiliary data on self-reported numbers of conversational partners per person. They show that models that use transmission parameters based on these self-reported social contacts are better able to capture the observed patterns of infection of endemically circulating mumps, as well as observed patterns of spread of pandemic influenza. The estimated age-specific transmission parameters suggested that school-aged children and young adults will experience the highest incidence of infection and will contribute most to further spread of infections during the initial phase of an emerging respiratory-spread epidemic in a completely susceptible population. These findings have important implications for controlling future outbreaks of novel respiratory-spread infectious agents.