Epistemic uncertainty in reliability-based design optimization
Epistemic uncertainty in reliability-based design optimization
复制标题
基于可靠性的设计优化中的认知不确定性
DOI：
10.1109/rams.2012.6175496
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Pan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiaotian Zhuang;R. Pan
基于可靠性的设计优化（RBDO）需要同时考虑偶然和认知的不确定性。必须探讨这些不确定性来源，并评估其对RBDO的影响。本文对不确定性进行了全面的研究，列出了不确定性的来源，对不确定性进行了分类，并讨论了不确定性的影响。认识的不确定性是我们感兴趣的，这是由于缺乏知识，可以减少。具体讨论了由于约束函数未知和随机变量分布未知而引起的认知不确定性。总结了应对认知不确定性的策略。以工字梁为例，采用Kriging模型逼近未知的真实约束函数，用均方根误差（RMSE）参数估计代替未知的分布参数，说明认知不确定性对RBDO的影响.
Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) needs to take into account of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. It is critical to explore these uncertainty sources and evaluate their impacts on RBDO. This paper provides a comprehensive study of uncertainties, in which the uncertainty sources are listed, categorized and their impacts are discussed. Epistemic uncertainty is of our interest, which is due to lack of knowledge and can be reduced. We specifically discuss the epistemic uncertainties due to unknown constraint function and unknown random variable distribution. The strategies to address epistemic uncertainty are summarized. An I-beam case study is employed to illustrate the impact of epistemic uncertainty on RBDO, in which a Kriging model is used to approximate the unknown true constraint function and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) parameter estimate is used to replace the unknown distribution parameters.