Factors governing the interannual variation and the long‐term trend of the 850 hPa temperature over Israel
Factors governing the interannual variation and the long‐term trend of the 850 hPa temperature over Israel
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以色列850 hPa气温年际变化及长期趋势的影响因素
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Alpert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Saaroni;B. Ziv;I. Osetinsky;P. Alpert
本研究考察了天气类型、大尺度环流强度和全球温度的年际变化对以色列夏季和冬季850 hPa温度的解释能力。Alpert等人（2004 b）定义了19种天气因子。在夏季，深而弱的波斯海槽解释了35%的年际温度变化。冬季，东部和北部的低压解释了44%的年际温度变化。另外两个因素被纳入：大尺度环流，夏季的北大西洋涛动和冬季的北极涛动;以及全球辐射强迫，由全球温度表示。这两个都被发现是显着的，所有这些解释的方差是56%的夏季和64%的冬季。夏季以冷暖型为主，冬季以冷型为主。
This study examines the ability of the interannual variability in the occurrence of synoptic types, intensity of large‐scale circulations and global temperature to explain that of the 850 hPa temperature in Israel for the summer and the winter. The synoptic factor was represented by 19 types defined by Alpert et al(2004b). For the summer, the deep and the weak Persian Trough explained 35% of the interannual temperature variance. For the winter, the lows to the east and to the north explained 44% of the interannual temperature variance. Two additional factors were incorporated: large‐scale circulations, the North Atlantic Oscillation for the summer and the Arctic Oscillation for the winter; and global radiative forcing, represented by the global temperature. Both of them were found to be significant, and the variance explained by all of them is 56% for the summer and 64% for the winter. In the summer the variation is dominated by warm and cool types whereas in the winter the cold systems dominate.