Global simulation of fine resolution land use/cover change and estimation of aboveground biomass carbon under the shared socioeconomic pathways
Global simulation of fine resolution land use/cover change and estimation of aboveground biomass carbon under the shared socioeconomic pathways
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共享社会经济路径下精细分辨率土地利用/覆盖变化的全球模拟和地上生物量碳的估算
DOI：
10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114943
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Xiaocong Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Zeng;Xiaoping Liu;Wenhao Li;Jinpei Ou;Yiling Cai;Guangzhao Chen;Manchun Li;Guangdong Li;Honghui Zhang;Xiaocong Xu
人类活动驱动的土地利用变化通过生境丧失和植被变化在陆地碳收支中发挥关键作用。尽管在共享社会经济路径（SSP）框架下对全球人口和经济增长进行了预测，但人们对土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）在精细空间分辨率下的变化以及碳库在不同SSP下对LUCC的响应知之甚少。本研究以1 km的空间分辨率和10年的时间步长对2010 - 2100年全球土地利用/覆被变化进行了预测，并探讨了其对地表生物量碳的直接影响。情景SSP 3产生了最高的全球耕地扩张，其中约48%和46%预计将分别位于当前的林地和草地。情景SSP 1的森林扩张最大，主要由草地（54%）和农田（30%）转化而来。由于土地利用/覆盖的空间变化，在情景SSP 3下，预计2100年全球AGB损失将达到约3.422 Pg C，在情景SSP 1下将增加约0.587 Pg C。在SSP 3情景下，非洲预计将失去30%的AGB。在情景SSP 1下，亚洲的地下生物量将固定0.774 Pg C，以扭转2100年AGB的损失。10 km和25 km分辨率的土地利用产品估算的全球碳损失分别比1 km分辨率的产品少1.5%（非洲的-11.2%到大洋洲的+34.0%）和2.9%（非洲的-11.8%到大洋洲的+24.0%）。这些结果表明，在现有的SSP情景预测中，充分的空间细节可以减少AGB评估的不确定性，合理的土地利用开发和管理是减轻LUCC对生物质碳库负面影响的关键措施。
Land use change driven by human activities plays a critical role in the terrestrial carbon budget through habitat loss and vegetation change. Despite the projections of the global population and economic growth under the framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), little is known of land use/cover change (LUCC) at a fine spatial resolution and how carbon pools respond to LUCC under different SSPs. This study projected the future global LUCC with 1 km spatial resolution and a 10-year time step from 2010 to 2100 and then explored its direct impacts on aboveground biomass carbon (AGB) under SSPs. Scenario SSP3 yields the highest global cropland expansion, among which approximately 48% and 46% is expected to be located in the current forest land and grassland, respectively. Scenario SSP1 has the largest forest expansion and is mainly converted from grassland (54%) and cropland (30%). Due to the spatial change in land use/cover, global AGB loss is expected to reach approximately 3.422 Pg C in 2100 under scenario SSP3 and increases by approximately 0.587 Pg C under scenario SSP1. Africa is expected to lose 30% of AGB under the scenario SSP3. Aboveground biomass in Asia will fix 0.774 Pg C to reverse the AGB loss in 2100 under scenario SSP1. The global carbon loss estimated by the land use products with 10 km and 25 km resolution are less than that with 1 km by 1.5% (ranging from −11.2% in Africa to +34.0% in Oceania) and 2.9% (ranging from −11.8% in Africa to +24.0% in Oceania), respectively. These findings suggest that sufficient spatial details in the existing SSP scenario projections could reduce the uncertainties of AGB assessment, and reasonable land use development and management is a key measure to mitigate the negative impacts of LUCC on the biomass carbon pool.