Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design.
Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design.
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DOI：
10.1007/s11403-021-00344-3
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Mellacher P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mellacher P
新型冠状病毒将如何演变？我研究了一个简单的流行病学模型，在这个模型中，突变可能会改变病毒及其相关疾病的特性，而抗原漂移允许新的变体部分逃避免疫。我通过分析表明，具有更高传染性、更长疾病持续时间和更短潜伏期的变体被证明更适合。针对有症状个体的“智能”遏制政策可能会改变病毒的演变方向，因为它们会给潜伏期更长、无症状感染者比例更高的变种带来优势。另一方面，死亡率的降低本身并不是一种进化优势。然后，我实现这个模型作为一个基于代理的仿真模型，以探索其聚合动力学。蒙特卡罗模拟表明，a）遏制政策设计对病毒进化的速度和方向都有影响，B）病毒可能在种群中无限循环，前提是遏制措施过于宽松，病毒逃避免疫的倾向足够高，至关重要的是，c）仅通过观察短期流行病学结果可能无法区分缓慢进化和快速进化的病毒。因此，在短期内看似成功的缓解战略，可能会证明具有破坏性的长期影响。这些结果表明，最佳遏制政策必须考虑到病毒变异和逃避免疫的倾向，即使在流行病的早期阶段，也要加强遗传和抗原监测。
How will the novel coronavirus evolve? I study a simple epidemiological model, in which mutations may change the properties of the virus and its associated disease stochastically and antigenic drifts allow new variants to partially evade immunity. I show analytically that variants with higher infectiousness, longer disease duration, and shorter latent period prove to be fitter. “Smart” containment policies targeting symptomatic individuals may redirect the evolution of the virus, as they give an edge to variants with a longer incubation period and a higher share of asymptomatic infections. Reduced mortality, on the other hand, does not per se prove to be an evolutionary advantage. I then implement this model as an agent-based simulation model in order to explore its aggregate dynamics. Monte Carlo simulations show that a) containment policy design has an impact on both speed and direction of viral evolution, b) the virus may circulate in the population indefinitely, provided that containment efforts are too relaxed and the propensity of the virus to escape immunity is high enough, and crucially c) that it may not be possible to distinguish between a slowly and a rapidly evolving virus by looking only at short-term epidemiological outcomes. Thus, what looks like a successful mitigation strategy in the short run, may prove to have devastating long-run effects. These results suggest that optimal containment policy must take the propensity of the virus to mutate and escape immunity into account, strengthening the case for genetic and antigenic surveillance even in the early stages of an epidemic.
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影响因子：
64.5
作者：
Hoffmann M;Arora P;Groß R;Seidel A;Hörnich BF;Hahn AS;Krüger N;Graichen L;Hofmann-Winkler H;Kempf A;Winkler MS;Schulz S;Jäck HM;Jahrsdörfer B;Schrezenmeier H;Müller M;Kleger A;Münch J;Pöhlmann S
通讯作者：
Pöhlmann S
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Gordo, Isabel;Gomes, M. Gabriela M.;Campos, Paulo R. A.
通讯作者：
Campos, Paulo R. A.
DOI：
10.1126/science.abf6950
发表时间：
2021-03-12
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
McCarthy KR;Rennick LJ;Nambulli S;Robinson-McCarthy LR;Bain WG;Haidar G;Duprex WP
通讯作者：
Duprex WP
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lee, Eva K.;Chen, Chien-Hung;Benecke, Bernard
通讯作者：
Benecke, Bernard
影响因子：
5.6
作者：
Chen, Jiahui;Wang, Rui;Wei, Guo-Wei
通讯作者：
Wei, Guo-Wei