Farming and the fate of wild nature
Farming and the fate of wild nature
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1106049
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发表时间：
2005-01-28
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Balmford, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Green, RE;Cornell, SJ;Balmford, A
到 2050 年，世界粮食需求预计将增加一倍以上。有关如何应对这一挑战的决定将对野生物种和栖息地产生深远影响。我们表明，农业已经是鸟类（最著名的分类单元）面临的最大灭绝威胁，其不利影响势必增加，特别是在发展中国家。人们提出了两种相互竞争的解决方案：野生动物友好型农业（这会增加农田上野生动物的密度，但可能会降低农业产量）和土地节约（通过增加产量来最大限度地减少对农田的需求）。我们提出了一个模型来确定如何解决这些方法之间的权衡。这表明，物种持久性的最佳耕作方式取决于对农产品的需求以及农田上不同物种的种群密度如何随农业产量变化。关于这种密度-产量函数的经验数据很少，但来自发展中国家一系列类群的证据表明，高产农业可能会让更多物种得以生存。
World food demand is expected to more than double by 2050. Decisions about how to meet this challenge will have profound effects on wild species and habitats. We show that farming is already the greatest extinction threat to birds (the best known taxon), and its adverse impacts took set to increase, especially in developing countries. Two competing solutions have been proposed: wildlife-friendly farming (which boosts densities of wild populations on farmland but may decrease agricultural yields) and land sparing (which minimizes demand for farmland by increasing yield). We present a model that identifies how to resolve the trade-off between these approaches. This shows that the best type of farming for species persistence depends on the demand for agricultural products and on how the population densities of different species on farmland change with agricultural yield. Empirical data on such density-yield functions are sparse, but evidence from a range of taxa in developing countries suggests that high-yield farming may allow more species to persist.