The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH)
The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH)
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DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-19-0255.1
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发表时间：
2020-10
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
D. Bromwich;K. Werner;B. Casati;Jordan G. Powers;I. Gorodetskaya;F. Massonnet;V. Vitale;Victoria J. Heinrich;D. Liggett;Stefanie Arndt;B. Barja;E. Bazile;Scott Carpentier;Jorge Carrasco;T. Choi;Yonghan Choi;S. Colwell;R. Cordero;M. Gervasi;T. Haiden;N. Hirasawa;J. Inoue;T. Jung;H. Kalesse;Seong‐Joong Kim;M. Lazzara;Kevin W. Manning;K. Norris;Sang‐Jong Park;P. Reid;I. Rigor;P. Rowe;H. Schmithüsen;P. Seifert;Qizhen Sun;T. Uttal;M. Zannoni;X. Zou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Bromwich;K. Werner;B. Casati;Jordan G. Powers;I. Gorodetskaya;F. Massonnet;V. Vitale;Victoria J. Heinrich;D. Liggett;Stefanie Arndt;B. Barja;E. Bazile;Scott Carpentier;Jorge Carrasco;T. Choi;Yonghan Choi;S. Colwell;R. Cordero;M. Gervasi;T. Haiden;N. Hirasawa;J. Inoue;T. Jung;H. Kalesse;Seong‐Joong Kim;M. Lazzara;Kevin W. Manning;K. Norris;Sang‐Jong Park;P. Reid;I. Rigor;P. Rowe;H. Schmithüsen;P. Seifert;Qizhen Sun;T. Uttal;M. Zannoni;X. Zou
南半球极地预测年(YOPP-SH)有一个从2018年11月16日至2019年2月15日的特别观测期，选择这一时期是为了跨越南极业务活动最活跃的南半球暖季。在为期3个月的SOP期间，又发射了大约2200个无线电探空仪，大约是常规计划的两倍，南大洋漂流浮标网络得到了加强。在SOP期间对全球模式预报的评估和使用其数据证实，温带南半球的预报技能落后于北半球，南极区和北极区之间的对比最大。观测系统实验的初步结果反映了SOP数据的应用，结果表明，增加的无线电探空仪对南极海岸附近的深层气旋的预测改进最大。SOP数据已被应用于对YOPP-SH SOP期间的一次大气河流事件的洞察，该事件提供了一个具有挑战性的预报，并影响了南美洲南部和南极半岛。YOPP-SH数据还被用于确定，大气-海洋-海冰耦合模式的季节预测难以捕捉到南极海冰极小值的时空特征。教育、外展和交流活动支持了青年行动方案和社会行动方案的努力。在南极夏季YOPP-SH SOP取得成功的基础上，正在组织冬季YOPP-SH SOP，以支持在南极南部海冰迅速扩大的寒冷季节对南极大气可预报性的探索。
The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) had a special observing period (SOP) that ran from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019, a period chosen to span the austral warm season months of greatest operational activity in the Antarctic. Some 2,200 additional radiosondes were launched during the 3-month SOP, roughly doubling the routine program, and the network of drifting buoys in the Southern Ocean was enhanced. An evaluation of global model forecasts during the SOP and using its data has confirmed that extratropical Southern Hemisphere forecast skill lags behind that in the Northern Hemisphere with the contrast being greatest between the southern and northern polar regions. Reflecting the application of the SOP data, early results from observing system experiments show that the additional radiosondes yield the greatest forecast improvement for deep cyclones near the Antarctic coast. The SOP data have been applied to provide insights on an atmospheric river event during the YOPP-SH SOP that presented a challenging forecast and that impacted southern South America and the Antarctic Peninsula. YOPP-SH data have also been applied in determinations that seasonal predictions by coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice models struggle to capture the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Antarctic sea ice minimum. Education, outreach, and communication activities have supported the YOPP-SH SOP efforts. Based on the success of this Antarctic summer YOPP-SH SOP, a winter YOPP-SH SOP is being organized to support explorations of Antarctic atmospheric predictability in the austral cold season when the southern sea ice cover is rapidly expanding.