Evaluating profiling as a means of allocating government services
Evaluating profiling as a means of allocating government services
复制标题
评估概况分析作为分配政府服务的一种手段
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-642-57615-7_4
复制
发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jeffrey A. Smith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Berger;D. Black;Jeffrey A. Smith
本文考虑使用统计分析来分配人员在政府计划中的备选方案，或参与或不参与计划。在美国，分析已被用于根据失业保险索赔的预测持续时间将失业保险索赔人分配给再就业服务。我们将分析置于可选分配机制之间的选择上下文中。不同的机制有不同的成本和收益——任何一种机制，无论是分析还是其他机制，都可能不适合每个程序。在分析系统中，我们强调需要明确分配机制的目标，例如公平或效率，我们讨论了公平和效率目标可能冲突的情况。关于美国的用户界面分析，我们在两个重要问题上提供了来自肯塔基州的经验证据。首先，我们证明了有效地预测UI法术的持续时间是可能的，但有效地做到这一点需要使用比许多美国州目前更多的协变量。这一发现很重要，因为对分析变量的有效预测是分析系统成功的必要条件，但不是充分条件。其次，我们表明，再就业服务的影响似乎并没有随着UI的预期持续时间而变化，这表明肯塔基州的UI分析并没有推进效率目标，尽管它可能会推进公平目标。
This paper considers the use of statistical profiling to allocate persons to alternative options within government programs, or to participation or non-participation in programs. Profiling has been used in the United States to allocate unemployment insurance (UI) claimants to reemployment services based on the predicted duration of their UI claim. We place profiling in the context of the choice among alternative assignment mechanisms. Different mechanisms have different costs and benefits – any one mechanism, whether profiling or something else, may not be optimal for every program. Within profiling systems, we highlight the need for clarity regarding the objective of the assignment mechanism, e.g. equity or efficiency, and we discuss situations in which equity and efficiency goals may conflict. In relation to UI profiling in the United States, we provide empirical evidence from the state of Kentucky on two important questions. First, we demonstrate that it is possible to effectively predict the duration of UI spells, but that effectively doing so requires using more covariates than many US states presently do. This finding is important because effective prediction of the profiling variable is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the success of a profiling system. Second, we show that the impact of reemployment services does not appear to vary with expected duration of the UI spell, indicating that UI profiling in Kentucky does not advance the goal of efficiency, though it may advance equity goals.