Impact of refining the assessment of dietary exposure to cadmium in the European adult population
Impact of refining the assessment of dietary exposure to cadmium in the European adult population
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DOI：
10.1080/19440049.2013.777161
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发表时间：
2013-04-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Fabiansson, Stefan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ferrari, Pietro;Arcella, Davide;Fabiansson, Stefan
暴露评估是对食品中存在的潜在有害物质进行风险评估的重要步骤。欧洲食品安全局(EFSA)首先使用确定性框架评估了欧洲人对镉的饮食暴露，得出了基于健康的指导值范围内的暴露平均值。从那时起，对食品的特征进行了改进，以更好地匹配发生数据和消费数据，并设计了一种新的策略来处理出现数据中的左审查。进行了概率评估，并与确定性估计进行了比较，使用了欧洲水平的发生率值和来自14个国家饮食调查的消费数据。在不同的调查中，概率估计的平均值在1.38(95%CI=1.351.44)到2.08(1.992.23)亩体重(BW)周(1)之间，比1.50到2.20亩GKG(1)周(1)的确定性(中界)平均值低不到10%。膳食暴露量的概率第95百分位数估计范围为2.65(2.572.72)至4.99(4.625.38)亩GKG(1)周(1)，除一项调查外，均比中值确定性估计值高3%至17%。总体而言，根据概率评估，受试者超过2.5亩GKG(1)BW的每周耐受摄入量的比例从14.8%(13.616.0%)到31.2%(29.732.5%)。这项工作的结果表明，使用决定论或概率评估方法，欧洲人群饮食中镉暴露的平均值具有类似的规模。对于较高的暴露水平，概率估计几乎始终大于确定性估计，因此反映了使用事件值的全部分布来确定暴露水平的影响。如果暴露估计值接近或超过基于健康的指导值，使用概率方法被认为是谨慎的。
Exposure assessment constitutes an important step in any risk assessment of potentially harmful substances present in food. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) first assessed dietary exposure to cadmium in Europe using a deterministic framework, resulting in mean values of exposure in the range of health-based guidance values. Since then, the characterisation of foods has been refined to better match occurrence and consumption data, and a new strategy to handle left-censoring in occurrence data was devised. A probabilistic assessment was performed and compared with deterministic estimates, using occurrence values at the European level and consumption data from 14 national dietary surveys. Mean estimates in the probabilistic assessment ranged from 1.38 (95% CI=1.351.44) to 2.08 (1.992.23) mu gkg(1) bodyweight (bw)week(1) across the different surveys, which were less than 10% lower than deterministic (middle bound) mean values that ranged from 1.50 to 2.20 mu gkg(1)bwweek(1). Probabilistic 95th percentile estimates of dietary exposure ranged from 2.65 (2.572.72) to 4.99 (4.625.38) mu gkg(1)bwweek(1), which were, with the exception of one survey, between 3% and 17% higher than middle-bound deterministic estimates. Overall, the proportion of subjects exceeding the tolerable weekly intake of 2.5 mu gkg(1)bw ranged from 14.8% (13.616.0%) to 31.2% (29.732.5%) according to the probabilistic assessment. The results of this work indicate that mean values of dietary exposure to cadmium in the European population were of similar magnitude using determinist or probabilistic assessments. For higher exposure levels, probabilistic estimates were almost consistently larger than deterministic counterparts, thus reflecting the impact of using the full distribution of occurrence values to determine exposure levels. It is considered prudent to use probabilistic methodology should exposure estimates be close to or exceeding health-based guidance values.