Optimal control of influenza epidemic model with virus mutations
Optimal control of influenza epidemic model with virus mutations
复制标题
病毒突变的流感流行模型的优化控制
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Quanyan Zhu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Gubar;Quanyan Zhu
流感病毒株在每个流行季节在人群中传播。随着受感染人群规模的增加，病毒可以自我变异并增强其强度。传统的流行病易感-感染-恢复模型没有捕捉到病毒的突变，因此该模型不足以研究病毒与流行过程在同一时间尺度上发生突变的流行病。在这项工作中，我们建立了一个新的框架来研究流感病毒突变的流行过程，该框架将易感-感染-恢复模型与用于描述病毒突变的复制子动力学相结合。我们提出了一个最优控制问题来研究医疗和检疫的最优策略。我们得到了最优策略的结构结果，并用数值算例说明了我们的结果。
Strains of influenza viruses spread in human populations during every season of epidemics. As the infected population size increases, the virus can mutate itself and grow in its strength. The traditional epidemic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model does not capture the mutations of viruses, and hence the model is not sufficient to study epidemics where the virus mutate at the same timescale as the epidemic process. In this work, we establish a novel framework to study the epidemic process with mutations of influenza viruses, which couples the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model with replicator dynamics used to describe virus mutations. We formulate an optimal control problem to study the optimal strategies for medical treatment and quarantine. We obtain structural results for the optimal strategies and use numerical examples to illustrate our results.