Climate change influences on crop mix shifts in the United States.
Climate change influences on crop mix shifts in the United States.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep40845
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发表时间：
2017-01-18
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
McCarl BA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cho SJ;McCarl BA
我们研究了当前和未来气候对美国空间作物组合的影响。我们发现，使用历史数据，温度和降水是作物生产地点和混合物中大便的原因之一，有些作物比其他作物更敏感。特别是我们发现，当气温升高时，选择棉花、水稻、高粱和冬小麦的可能性更大。我们还发现，大麦、高粱、冬小麦、春小麦和干草更有可能在干旱地区被选择，玉米、棉花、水稻和大豆更有可能在湿润地区被选择。此外，我们评估了1970年至2010年期间观察到的作物组合变化有多少是由气候变化造成的。在那里，我们发现气候解释了纬度变化的7-50%，经度变化的20-36%和海拔变化的4-28%。最后，我们估计气候变化对未来作物组合的影响CMIP 5情景。在那里，我们发现美国几乎所有主要作物的产区都在向北和向东移动。这些估计描述了农民如何应对气候变化，并可用于规划未来的作物分配。
We examine the impact of current and future climate on crop mixes over space in the US. We find using historical data that temperature and precipitation are among the causal factors for shits in crop production location and mixes, with some crops being more sensitive than others. In particular, we find that when temperature rises, cotton, rice, sorghum and winter wheat are more likely to be chosen. We also find that barley, sorghum, winter wheat, spring wheat and hay are more likely to be chosen as regions become drier, and corn, cotton, rice and soybeans are more likely to be selected in wetter regions. Additionally, we assess how much of the observed crop mix shifts between 1970 and 2010 were contributed to by climate change. There we find climate explains about 7–50% of the shift in latitude, 20–36% in longitude and 4–28% of that in elevation. Finally, we estimate climate change impacts on future crop mix under CMIP5 scenarios. There we find shifts in US production regions for almost all major crops with the movement north and east. The estimates describe how the farmers respond to altering climate and can be used for planning future crop allocations.