Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands
Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268818000481
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Wallinga, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
van Wijhe, M.;Tulen, A. D.;Wallinga, J.
疫苗接种计划被认为是世纪传染病下降的主要原因。近年来，荷兰的全国疫苗接种覆盖率一直在下降，这突出表明需要对疫苗接种计划进行持续监测和评估。我们的目的是量化荷兰长期疫苗接种计划对报告病例的影响。我们收集了1919-2015年期间荷兰白喉、脊髓灰质炎、腮腺炎和风疹的月度病例通报，并将其数字化。考虑季节性、多年周期、长期趋势和自相关性的泊松回归模型适用于疫苗接种前时期。避免的病例数按观察病例数与基于模型预测的预期病例数之差计算。在大规模接种疫苗的前13年，病例报告迅速下降，白喉报告病例的82.4%（95%可信区间（CI）：74.9-87.6）、脊髓灰质炎病例的92.9%（95% CI 85.0-97.2）和腮腺炎病例的79.1%（95% CI 67.1-87.4）得以避免。11岁女孩接种风疹疫苗避免了49.9%（95% CI 9.3-73.5）的病例，而普遍接种疫苗避免了68.1%（95% CI 19.4-87.3）的病例。这些发现表明，疫苗接种方案大大有助于减少荷兰的传染病。
Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919-2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4% (95% credible interval (CI): 74.9-87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9% (95% CI 85.0-97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1% (95% CI 67.1-87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9% (95% CI 9.3-73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1% (95% CI 19.4-87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccination programmes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.