A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation
A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation
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DOI：
10.1080/00324728.2011.611411
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Sawyer, Cheryl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wilmoth, John;Zureick, Sarah;Sawyer, Cheryl
许多人口的死亡率估计数是使用模型生命表得出的，模型生命表描述了人类死亡率的典型年龄模式。我们提出了一个新的系统的模型生命表作为提高这种估计的质量和透明度的一种手段。一个灵活的二维模型，适合从人类死亡率数据库的生命表的集合。该模型可用于估计完整的生命表，给出一个或两个信息：仅儿童死亡率，或儿童和成人死亡率。使用来自各种来源的生命表，我们比较了新旧方法的性能。新模型优于Coale-Demeny和联合国模型生命表。估计误差类似于由修改后的黄铜logit程序。由于两个输入参数都是连续的，而第二个输入参数是可选的，因此该模型更适合于死亡率估计的实际需要。
Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database. The model can be used to estimate full life tables given one or two pieces of information: child mortality only, or child and adult mortality. Using life tables from a variety of sources, we have compared the performance of new and old methods. The new model outperforms the Coale-Demeny and UN model life tables. Estimation errors are similar to those produced by the modified Brass logit procedure. The proposed model is better suited to the practical needs of mortality estimation, since both input parameters are continuous yet the second one is optional.