A novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy design
A novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy design
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-20-2701-2020
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发表时间：
2020-10-12
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Werner, Maximilian J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cremen, Gemma;Werner, Maximilian J.
我们提出了一个新的框架来评估与水力压裂引起的地震活动相关的风险，这是最近公众关注的一个显著来源。该框架结合了注入诱发地震活动的统计预测模型、地面运动预测方程和受影响地区的暴露模型，以定量地将作业期间注入的液体量与可能产生的滋扰感觉到的地面运动联系起来。这种(相对较小的)运动预计将更符合公众对诱发地震活动的容忍阈值，而不是可能导致结构破坏的较大地面震动。与通常用于诱发地震活动管理的反应型震级和基于地面运动的系统相比，这种主动式框架有助于提前控制注入量以降低风险，具有显著的优势。该框架适用于英格兰西北部普雷斯顿新路页岩气田周围的地区。一个值得注意的发现是，计算对所使用的地震活动预测模型的假设特别敏感，即它是限制了对给定体积释放的累积地震矩，还是假设地震活动符合构造事件的古登堡-里希特分布。最后，我们讨论了如何使用该框架来为相关政策提供信息。
We propose a novel framework for assessing the risk associated with seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing, which has been a notable source of recent public concern. The framework combines statistical forecast models for injection-induced seismicity, ground motion prediction equations, and exposure models for affected areas, to quantitatively link the volume of fluid injected during operations with the potential for nuisance felt ground motions. Such (relatively small) motions are expected to be more aligned with the public tolerance threshold for induced seismicity than larger ground shaking that could cause structural damage. This proactive type of framework, which facilitates control of the injection volume ahead of time for risk mitigation, has significant advantages over reactive-type magnitude and ground-motion-based systems typically used for induced seismicity management. The framework is applied to the region surrounding the Preston New Road shale gas site in North West England. A notable finding is that the calculations are particularly sensitive to assumptions of the seismicity forecast model used, i.e. whether it limits the cumulative seismic moment released for a given volume or assumes seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter distribution for tectonic events. Finally, we discuss how the framework can be used to inform relevant policy.