Sounding-derived parameters associated with large hail and tornadoes in the Netherlands
Sounding-derived parameters associated with large hail and tornadoes in the Netherlands
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.08.006
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发表时间：
2007-02
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
P. Groenemeijer;A. Delden
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Groenemeijer;A. Delden
介绍了一项研究，重点是从无线电探空仪数据或从数值大气模式数据中获得的参数在预报与对流风暴有关的恶劣天气方面的潜在价值。参数是从荷兰大冰雹、龙卷风(包括水面上的龙卷风：水龙卷)和雷暴附近的探测得出的。从1975年12月1日至2003年8月31日期间，来自荷兰及其周边六个站的66,365次无线电探空仪探测被归类为与这些天气现象有关或不与之有关的天气现象，使用来自自愿观察员、荷兰国家气象研究所(KNMI)的观测数据和来自英国气象局的闪电数据。办公室。结果发现，用提升指数或CAPE和0-6公里风切变独立测量的不稳定性在区分大冰雹和非冰雹雷暴环境方面有相当大的技巧。研究还发现，在离地面3公里以下释放的海角平均在水龙卷风和弱龙卷风附近较高，这些龙卷风大多发生在地球表面最低1公里处的低切变。另一方面，低层切变在龙卷风较强(F1和F2)的环境中较强，并随着F级的增加而增加。这与先前存在的垂直涡度的伸展是弱龙卷风形成的最重要机制，而涡度的倾斜对于更强的龙卷风的形成更重要的观点是一致的。目前的结果可能有助于预报员评估发生严重冰雹或龙卷风的可能性。
A study is presented focusing on the potential value of parameters derived from radiosonde data or data from numerical atmospheric models for the forecasting of severe weather associated with convective storms. Parameters have been derived from soundings in the proximity of large hail, tornadoes (including tornadoes over water: waterspouts) and thunderstorms in the Netherlands. 66,365 radiosonde soundings from six stations in and around the Netherlands between 1 Dec. 1975 to 31 Aug. 2003 were classified as being associated or not associated with these weather phenomena using observational data from voluntary observers, the Dutch National Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and lightning data from the U.K. Met. Office. It was found that instability as measured by the Lifted Index or CAPE and 0–6 km wind shear independently have considerable skill in distinguishing environments of large hail and of non-hail-producing thunderstorms. It was also found that CAPE released below 3 km above ground level is on average high near waterspouts and weak tornadoes that mostly occur with low shear in the lowest 1 km above the Earth's surface. On the other hand, low-level shear is strong in environments of stronger (F1 and F2) tornadoes and increases with increasing F-scale. This is consistent with the notion that stretching of pre-existing vertical vorticity is the most important mechanism for the formation of weak tornadoes while the tilting of vorticity is more important with stronger tornadoes. The presented results may assist forecasters to assess the likelihood of severe hail or tornadoes.