Maximum likelihood estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness against transmission from the household and from the community
Maximum likelihood estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness against transmission from the household and from the community
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.7558
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发表时间：
2018-03-15
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Monto, Arnold S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ainslie, Kylie E. C.;Haber, Michael J.;Monto, Arnold S.
建议接种流感疫苗是预防流感感染和疾病的最佳方法。由于流感病毒类型和亚型的季节性变化，必须每年生产新疫苗，并估计疫苗有效性（VE）。自2010年以来，流感疫苗在美国被普遍推荐，使得随机临床试验不道德。最近的研究使用了监测家庭队列研究设计，以确定对家庭和社区流感传播的单独VE估计。我们开发了一个概率模型和伴随的最大似然法来估计疫苗相关的预防家庭和社区流感传播的保护作用。使用基于代理的随机模拟，我们验证了我们可以获得最大似然估计的传输参数和VE接近其真实值。进行敏感度分析，以检查偏离我们假设的影响。我们使用我们的方法从2012-2013年流感季节期间密歇根州一项监测家庭研究的数据中估计传播参数和VE，并能够检测到流感疫苗接种对社区获得性传播的显著保护作用。
Influenza vaccination is recommended as the best way to protect against influenza infection and illness. Due to seasonal changes in influenza virus types and subtypes, a new vaccine must be produced, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) must be estimated, annually. Since 2010, influenza vaccination has been recommended universally in the United States, making randomized clinical trials unethical. Recent studies have used a monitored household cohort study design to determine separate VE estimates against influenza transmission from the household and community. We developed a probability model and accompanying maximum likelihood procedure to estimate vaccine-related protection against transmission of influenza from the household and the community. Using agent-based stochastic simulations, we validated that we can obtain maximum likelihood estimates of transmission parameters and VE close to their true values. Sensitivity analyses to examine the effect of deviations from our assumptions were conducted. We used our method to estimate transmission parameters and VE from data from a monitored household study in Michigan during the 2012-2013 influenza season and were able to detect a significant protective effect of influenza vaccination against community-acquired transmission.