Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) to Equity Market and Currency Exchange Rate
Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) to Equity Market and Currency Exchange Rate
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2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 对股票市场和货币汇率的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. Bakar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Bakar
背景资料：于二零二零年，截至二零二零年四月四日，冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的蔓延已导致1，056，159宗确诊个案，57，206人死亡，涉及207个地区。这种新的疾病是通过与受感染者咳嗽或打喷嚏时的接触在人与人之间传播的。当人们触摸带有病毒的表面或物体，然后触摸他们的眼睛、鼻子或嘴时，它也会传播。这种疾病会导致呼吸道疾病，症状包括咳嗽、发烧，在更严重的情况下，呼吸困难。COVID-19的爆发造成了不稳定的经济状况，因为市场情绪减缓了所有经济活动。材料与方法：本研究选择了两种类型的时间序列数据，即KLSE指数和美元/马币汇率。每日观察期选择自二零二零年一月至二零二零年三月，以分析COVID-19爆发的影响。然后计算这两个变量的变化，以检测与COVID-19爆发期间相关的动态行为。本研究亦进行相关性分析，以检测这两个变量之间的关联，成为金融稳定状况的指标。结果：KLSE指数变化的均值为-0.264，表明在COVID-19爆发期间负值占主导地位。与此同时，货币汇率的变化也显示为负值，平均值为-0.087。本研究对KLSE指数变动与汇率变动进行斯皮尔曼等级相关分析。结果表明，KLSE指数的变化与汇率之间存在显著、中等和正相关关系。结论：新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）对股票市场指数和货币汇率产生显著影响。由于许多经济活动停止，此流行病在全球范围内造成不稳定的经济环境和不平衡的金融状况。这一发现的重要性将有助于政府机构了解2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）爆发期间的现状。此外，研究结果将有助于政策制定者制定解决方案，以稳定COVID-19爆发时的经济形势。同时，本文的研究也有助于投资者对股票市场的动态进行监测，从而制定投资组合，以获得更好的收益，减少损失。关键词：冠状病毒病; COVID-19;股票市场;货币汇率。------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------提交日期：07-04-2020接收日期：21-04-2020 -
Background: In year 2020, the spreading of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has contributed to 1,056,159 confirmed cases, 57,206 deaths and involving 207 territories by 4 th April 2020. The new disease is spreading human to human contact with an infected person when they cough or sneeze. It also spreads when a person touches a surface or object that has the virus on it, then touches their eyes, nose, or mouth.The disease causes respiratory illness with symptoms such as a cough, fever, and in more severe cases, difficulty breathing.The outbreak of COVID-19 creates unstable economic condition due to market sentiment that slowdown all economy activities. Materials and Methods: This research selected two types of time series data namely KLSE index and currency exchange rate for USD/MYR. The daily observation periods are selected from January 2020 until March 2020 to analyze the impact of COVID-19 outbreak. Then changes for both of these variables arecalculated for detecting dynamic behavior related to period of COVID-19 outbreak. This study also performed correlation analysis to detect association between these two variable that become indicator for a financial stability situation. Results: The mean for changes of KLSE index is -0.264 that indicates negative value become dominant during COVID-19 outbreak period. In the same time, changes for currency exchange rate also shows mean with negative value, -0.087. This study implemented Spearman rank correlation analysis between changes of KLSE index and currency exchange rate. Result shows there is significant, moderate and positive association between changes of KLSE index and currency exchange rate. Conclusion:Coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) creates significant effect for equity market index and currency exchange rate. This pandemic creates unstable economic environment and unbalance financial situation in worldwide because many economic activities are ceased down. The important of this finding will help government body to understand the current condition during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. In addition, the findings will assist policy makers to develop solution in stabilizing economic situation in COVID-19 outbreak. In the same time, this study helps investors to monitor the equity market to develop investment portfolio to gain better return and reducing loss. Key Word:Coronavirus disease; COVID-19; Equity Market; Currency Exchange Rate. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Date of Submission: 07-04-2020 Date of Acceptance: 21-04-2020 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------