A pedestrian-based model for simulating COVID-19 transmission on college campus
A pedestrian-based model for simulating COVID-19 transmission on college campus
复制标题
用于模拟大学校园内 COVID-19 传播的基于行人的模型
DOI：
10.1080/23249935.2021.2005182
复制
发表时间：
2021-11-26
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Yin, Jie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Chuan-Yao;Yin, Jie
如今，由于新冠肺炎的大流行，行人动力学和流行病学的融合正在升温。本文提出了一种基于行人的传染病传播模型，该模型将基于元胞自动机的行人动力学与随机感染传播动力学相结合。基于该模型，我们模拟了新冠肺炎在大学校园内不同室内场景下的传输情况。我们确认，新冠肺炎患者潜伏期的传染性以及无症状患者的存在是疫情难以控制的关键原因。在此基础上，提出了几种不同操作层面的非药物干预措施，并利用计算模型对其效果进行了评价。我们发现，室内干预可以减缓疾病传播的速度，而隔离可以缩小疾病传播的规模。在减少新感染人数方面，这两种干预水平的组合比任何单一干预都要好。
Nowadays the integration of pedestrian dynamics and epidemiology is heating up due to the pandemic of COVID-19. In this paper, we introduce a pedestrian-based epidemic transmission model that combines cellular automata-based pedestrian dynamics with stochastic infection spread dynamics. Based on this model, we simulate COVID-19 transmission in different indoor scenarios on the college campus. We confirm that COVID-19 patients’ infectivity during the incubation period and the presence of asymptomatic patients are key reasons for the difficulty in controlling the epidemic. Then, several non-pharmaceutical interventions at different operational levels are proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated by using computational models. We find that indoor-level interventions can slow the speed of disease transmission while quarantine can downsize the scale of disease transmission. And the combination of these two levels of intervention is superior to any single intervention in reducing the number of new infections.