Modeling the impact of school reopening on SARS-CoV-2 transmission using contact structure data from Shanghai.
Modeling the impact of school reopening on SARS-CoV-2 transmission using contact structure data from Shanghai.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12889-020-09799-8
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发表时间：
2020-11-16
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Hébert-Dufresne L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lee B;Hanley JP;Nowak S;Bates JHT;Hébert-Dufresne L
数学建模研究表明，仅先发制人地关闭学校对SARS-CoV-2传播的总体影响很小，但在社区接触减少的背景下重新开放学校是一种尚未得到充分评估的独特情况。我们采用了以前公布的模型，使用来自上海的联系信息，以模拟学校在各种条件下重新开放。我们研究了不同的策略，结合不同年龄组之间观察到的接触模式在基线和“锁定”期间。我们还测试了我们的策略对15岁以下儿童感染易感性较低的假设的稳健性。我们发现，如果10-19岁儿童的日常接触减少到基线的33%，那么为所有儿童重新开放学校将保持干预后R 0 < 1，直到基线R 0约为3.3。这一发现对儿童相对于成人的感染易感性的各种估计（高达50%）以及对社区其他地区伴随重新开放的各种水平的估计（高达40%）是稳健的。然而，在学校环境中没有任何程度的接触减少的情况下，学校全面重新开放使R 0几乎回到基线，突出了缓解措施的重要性。这些结果，从上海的接触结构数据的基础上，表明，学校可以重新开放与适当的预防措施，在极端的接触减少的条件下，在合理的水平重新开放的条件下，在其余的社区。
Mathematical modeling studies have suggested that pre-emptive school closures alone have little overall impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but reopening schools in the background of community contact reduction presents a unique scenario that has not been fully assessed. We adapted a previously published model using contact information from Shanghai to model school reopening under various conditions. We investigated different strategies by combining the contact patterns observed between different age groups during both baseline and “lockdown” periods. We also tested the robustness of our strategy to the assumption of lower susceptibility to infection in children under age 15 years. We find that reopening schools for all children would maintain a post-intervention R0 < 1 up to a baseline R0 of approximately 3.3 provided that daily contacts among children 10–19 years are reduced to 33% of baseline. This finding was robust to various estimates of susceptibility to infection in children relative to adults (up to 50%) and to estimates of various levels of concomitant reopening in the rest of the community (up to 40%). However, full school reopening without any degree of contact reduction in the school setting returned R0 virtually back to baseline, highlighting the importance of mitigation measures. These results, based on contact structure data from Shanghai, suggest that schools can reopen with proper precautions during conditions of extreme contact reduction and during conditions of reasonable levels of reopening in the rest of the community.
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