Long-term effects of land-use change on water resources in urbanizing watersheds
Long-term effects of land-use change on water resources in urbanizing watersheds
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pwat.0000083
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发表时间：
2023-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ammara Talib;T. Randhir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ammara Talib;T. Randhir
土地利用变化引起的能量平衡的变化可能会显著影响以蒸散（ET）形式进入大气的水分损失量和时间。此外，这些将影响流域系统中的水通量，影响径流率，流量，强度和洪水频率。在过去的世纪，土地利用变化的SuAsCo（萨德伯里-阿萨贝特和康科德）流域改变了流域水文，沉积物和营养负荷，是有害的水资源在SuAsCo。本研究使用一个综合的基于物理的模型水文模拟程序-FORTRAN（HSPF），沿着与土地转换模型（LTM），以评估预测的时间和空间变化的水，养分和泥沙产量的未来土地利用方案的2035年，2065年和2100年。结果表明，在2100年（从2005年基线水平），有效不透水面积增加75%，森林面积减少50%，预计将导致年径流量增加3%，年平均地表径流总量增加69%。在2100年，流域出口处的年均总悬浮固体（TSS）产量估计将增加54%。到2100年，由于城市扩展和径流量增加，总磷（TP）和总氮（TN）的年均浓度预计将增加12%和13%。这种综合建模方法将告知流域管理者和土地所有者关于SuAsCo流域的关键领域，以应用最佳管理实践（BMPs）来减轻土地利用土地覆盖（LULC）变化的影响。
The changes in energy balance resulting from land-use change may significantly affect the amount and timing of water loss to the atmosphere as evapotranspiration (ET). Also, these will impact water fluxes in the watershed system, influencing runoff rate, flow volume, intensity, and frequency of floods. During the past century, land-use change in the SuAsCo (Sudbury-Assabet and Concord) watershed has altered basin hydrology, sediment, and nutrient load that is detrimental to water resources in SuAsCo. This study uses an integrated physically-based model Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), along with Land Transformation Model (LTM), to assess predicted temporal and spatial changes in water, nutrient, and sediment yields for future land-use scenarios of 2035, 2065, and 2100. Results showed that a 75% increase in effective impervious area and a 50% decrease in forest area in 2100 (from 2005 baseline levels) are projected to cause a 3% increase in annual streamflow and a 69% increase in total yearly mean surface runoff. The average annual total suspended solid (TSS) yield at the watershed outlet is estimated to increase by 54% in 2100. An increase of 12% and 13% concentrations of average annual total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) are predicted by 2100 due to urban expansion and increased runoff volume. This integrated modeling approach will inform watershed managers and landowners about critical areas of the SuAsCo watershed to apply best management practices (BMPs) to mitigate the effects of land-use land cover (LULC) change.