4D-trajectory time windows: definition and uncertainty management
4D-trajectory time windows: definition and uncertainty management
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DOI：
10.1108/aeat-01-2018-0031
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发表时间：
2019-05-13
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Najar Godoy, Mar Najar Godoy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rodriguez-Sanz, Alvaro;Gomez Comendador, Fernando;Najar Godoy, Mar Najar Godoy
目的在未来的空中交通管理（ATM）系统中使用4D轨迹操作概念将要求飞机非常准确地满足到达指定检查点的时间。为此，定义了称为时间窗口（TW）的时间间隔。本文的目的是开发一种方法来验证这些TW和管理与4D轨迹演变相关的不确定性。设计/方法/方法4D轨迹使用点质量模型和EUROCONTROL的BADA方法进行建模。作者随机评估的可变性的参数，影响4D轨迹使用Monte Carlo模拟。这使得作者能够为多个检查点划分TW。最后，作者提出了一个因果模型，基于贝叶斯网络方法，评估在所选的检查点的基本参数的变化的影响。结果-初步结果表明，所提出的TW模型限制在时间上的偏差小于27秒的检查点的途中段（300 NM）。实际影响新的轨迹的目标-基于基础的行动是有效和战略性地管理空中交通量的预期增长，并仅作为最后手段采用战术干预。我们需要新的工具来支持4D轨迹管理功能，例如战略和协作规划。作者提出了一种新的方法，以确保飞机punctuality.Originality/value-本文的主要贡献是一个模型的发展，以处理不确定性，并增加可预测性的4D轨迹，这是未来的空域运营环境的关键要素。
Purpose The use of the 4D trajectory operational concept in the future air traffic management (ATM) system will require the aircraft to meet very accurately an arrival time over a designated checkpoint. To do this, time intervals known as time windows (TW) are defined. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology to characterise these TWs and to manage the uncertainty associated with the evolution of 4D trajectories.Design/methodology/approach 4D trajectories are modelled using a point mass model and EUROCONTROL's BADA methodology. The authors stochastically evaluate the variability of the parameters that influence 4D trajectories using Monte Carlo simulation. This enables the authors to delimit TWs for several checkpoints. Finally, the authors set out a causal model, based on a Bayesian network approach, to evaluate the impact of variations in fundamental parameters at the chosen checkpoints.Findings The initial results show that the proposed TW model limits the deviation in time to less than 27 s at the checkpoints of an en-route segment (300 NM).Practical implications The objective of new trajectory-based operations is to efficiently and strategically manage the expected increase in air traffic volumes and to apply tactical interventions as a last resort only. We need new tools to support 4D trajectory management functions such as strategic and collaborative planning. The authors propose a novel approach for to ensure aircraft punctuality.Originality/value The main contribution of the paper is the development of a model to deal with uncertainty and to increase predictability in 4D trajectories, which are key elements of the future airspace operational environment.