Nuclear reactors' construction costs: The role of lead-time, standardization and technological progress
Nuclear reactors' construction costs: The role of lead-time, standardization and technological progress
复制标题
核反应堆的建设成本：交付周期、标准化和技术进步的作用
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2015.03.015
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
L. Rangel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Michel Berthélemy;L. Rangel
本文根据隔夜成本数据对法国和美国的核反应堆建设成本进行了计量经济学分析。我们建立了一个方程组的过夜成本和施工时间（提前期），以控制内消，使用预期电力需求的变化作为工具。我们认为，核反应堆的建设可以通过两个渠道受益于标准化收益。首先，当在建核反应堆设计的多样性较低时，短期协调效益可能会出现。其次，由于从过去类似反应堆的建设中学习溢出效应，可以产生长期效益。我们发现，建设成本直接受益于学习溢出，但这些溢出是唯一显着的核模型由同一建筑师工程师。此外，我们表明，正在建设中的核反应堆的标准化有一个间接的和积极的影响，通过减少交货时间的建设成本，后者是建设成本的主要驱动因素之一。相反，我们还探索了通过搜索学习的可能性，发现与其他能源技术相反，创新导致建筑成本增加。
This paper provides an econometric analysis of nuclear reactor construction costs in France and the United States based on overnight costs data. We build a simultaneous system of equations for overnight costs and construction time (lead-time) to control for endogeneity, using change in expected electricity demand as instrument. We argue that the construction of nuclear reactors can benefit from standardization gains through two channels. First, short term coordination benefits can arise when the diversity of nuclear reactors' designs under construction is low. Second, long term benefits can occur due to learning spillovers from past constructions of similar reactors. We find that construction costs benefit directly from learning spillovers but that these spillovers are only significant for nuclear models built by the same Architect–Engineer. In addition, we show that the standardization of nuclear reactors under construction has an indirect and positive effect on construction costs through a reduction in lead-time, the latter being one of the main drivers of construction costs. Conversely, we also explore the possibility of learning by searching and find that, contrary to other energy technologies, innovation leads to construction costs increases.