Can states buy peace? Social welfare spending and civil conflicts
Can states buy peace? Social welfare spending and civil conflicts
复制标题
DOI：
10.1177/0022343311431286
复制
发表时间：
2012-03-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Peksen, Dursun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Taydas, Zeynep;Peksen, Dursun
本研究探讨了国家提供社会福利服务的能力是否对国内冲突发生的可能性产生重大影响。我们认为，福利支出有助于保持和平，因为社会服务的提供抵消了社会中贫困和不平等的影响，从而减少了不满。福利支出表明政府对社会服务的承诺，反映了政府的优先事项和对公民的奉献精神。通过制定改善公民生活水平的福利政策，政府可以拉拢政治反对派，减少组织叛乱的动机。利用时间序列，跨国数据为1975-2005年期间，结果表明，政府在福利政策（即教育，卫生和社会保障）的投资水平的增加，国内冲突的可能性显着下降，控制其他几个协变量的内部冲突。额外的数据分析表明，一般公共支出和军事支出不太可能增加或减少内乱的概率。总的来说，这些研究结果表明，某些类型的公共支出，如福利支出，可能对国内冲突有很强的安抚作用，因此，国家的福利努力对维护和平至关重要。
This study examines whether the state's ability to provide social welfare services has any major effect on the probability of civil conflict onset. We argue that welfare spending contributes to sustaining peace because the provision of social services reduces grievances by offsetting the effects of poverty and inequality in society. Welfare spending serves as an indication of the commitment of the government to social services and reflects its priorities and dedication to citizens. By enacting welfare policies that improve the living standards of citizens, governments can co-opt the political opposition and decrease the incentives for organizing a rebellion. Utilizing time-series, cross-national data for the 1975-2005 period, the results indicate that as the level of the government investment in welfare policies (i.e. education, health, and social security) increases, the likelihood of civil conflict onset declines significantly, controlling for several other covariates of internal conflict. Additional data analysis shows that general public spending and military expenditures are unlikely to increase or decrease the probability of civil unrest. Overall, these findings suggest that certain types of public spending, such as welfare spending, might have a strong pacifying effect on civil conflict, and therefore the state's welfare efforts are vital for the maintenance of peace.