Evaluating the effectiveness of different player rating systems in predicting the results of professional snooker matches
Evaluating the effectiveness of different player rating systems in predicting the results of professional snooker matches
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejor.2021.04.056
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发表时间：
2021-09-29
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Brooks, Roger J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Collingwood, James A. P.;Wright, Michael;Brooks, Roger J.
本文是第一个考虑不同的方法来评价职业斯诺克运动员的基础上，他们过去的表现。官方的世界排名（基于奖金收入）和球员的胜率被认为是沿着与布拉德利-特里和埃罗模型形式的配对比较方法。这些模型是通过预测后续比赛结果的能力来评估的，它们之间的选择相对较少。然后分析匹配的子集，以确定模型的相对优势和劣势以及潜在的改进。这些模型往往低估了“新”球员的表现，这是使用世界排名来预测表现的主要局限性。会计的实力所面临的最高排名的球员是相关的，虽然这是不太真实的排名较低的球员。基于两年结果的模型优于基于一年的模型，但有迹象表明，考虑到最近形式上的改进可能是有益的。(c)2021 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
This paper is the first to consider different methods for rating professional snooker players based on their past performance. The official World Rankings (based on prize money earned) and a player's win percentage are considered, along with paired comparison approaches in the form of Bradley-Terry and Elo models. The models are assessed through their ability to predict the results of subsequent matches, with relatively little to choose between them. Subsets of matches are then analysed to identify relative strengths and weaknesses of the models and potential improvements. The models tended to underestimate the performance of 'new' players and this is the main limitation of using the World Rankings to predict performance. Accounting for the strength of opposition faced by the highest-ranked players is shown to be relevant; although this is less true for lower-ranked players. Models based on two years of results out-perform those based on a single year but there is some indication that accounting for a recent improvement in form may be beneficial. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.