A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lock-down, Testing, and Tracing
A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lock-down, Testing, and Tracing
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DOI：
10.1257/aeri.20200201
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发表时间：
2021-09-01
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Lippi, Francesco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alvarez, Fernando;Argente, David;Lippi, Francesco
我们研究了一个计划者在控制COVID-19死亡人数的同时最小化封锁的产出成本的最佳封锁。该政策规定在疫情爆发后几周开始严格封锁，一个月后覆盖近50%的人口，总持续时间不到4个月。最佳封锁的强度取决于感染者死亡率的梯度和抗体检测的可用性，这产生了GDP的2%的福利收益。我们还研究了测试跟踪检疫，我们证明这是对锁定的补充。
We study the optimal lock-down for a planner who controls the fatalities of COVID-19 while minimizing the output costs of the lockdown. The policy prescribes a severe lock-down beginning a few weeks after the outbreak, covering almost 50 percent of the population after a month, with a total duration shy of 4 months. The intensity of the optimal lock-down depends on the gradient of the fatality rate with respect to the infected and the availability of antibody testing, which yields a welfare gain of 2 percent of GDP. We also study test-tracing-quarantine, which we show to be complementary to lock-down.