Simulating the effects of regulation measures on ecosystem state changes in a shallow lake
Simulating the effects of regulation measures on ecosystem state changes in a shallow lake
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浅水湖泊调控措施对生态系统状态变化的影响模拟
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.05.002
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Yang Zhifeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xu Cui;Yin Xin'an;Xu Zhihao;Liu Hongrui;Yang Ying;Yang Zhifeng
生态系统状态变化是浅水湖泊恢复与管理的理论与实践的热点。以往的研究主要集中在状态突变（区系突变）的发生和驱动机制。然而，潜在措施对生态系统状态变化过程的调节作用仍然相对未知。本研究采用一个机制驱动的数学模型来模拟浅水湖泊生态系统状态变化的动态。从参数敏感性分析结果中选择建筑监管方案的参数。考虑到这些措施在真实的湖泊管理中的使用方便性。最后，结合情景分析了生态系统状态变化过程中的调控效应。以华北平原白洋淀为例进行了研究。结果表明，通过降低入水总磷浓度可以调控生态系统状态的变化过程。当流入的总磷浓度降低到0.23 g m−3以下时，生态系统将有更好的表现。当入流总磷浓度降至0.18 g m−3时，在较窄的植被覆盖范围内，生态系统将经历周期性的状态振荡。
Ecosystem state changes are actively engaged in the theory and practice of shallow lake restoration and management. Previous research focus on the occurrence and driving mechanisms of abrupt state shifts (regime shifts). However, the regulation effects of potential measures on the process of ecosystem state changes remain relatively unknown. The study employed a mechanism-driven, mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of ecosystem state changes in a shallow lake. Parameters for building regulatory scenarios were selected from the parameter sensitivity analysis outcomes. The convenience of use of the measures in real lake management was taken into consideration. Finally, regulation effects on the process of ecosystem state changes have been analyzed with scenarios. Lake Baiyangdian in north China plain was taken as a case study for this research. Results demonstrated that the process of ecosystem state changes could be regulated by reducing total phosphorous concentration in incoming water (inflows). The ecosystem will have better performance toward the clear state when reducing total phosphorous concentration in inflows below 0.23 g m−3. The ecosystem will experience periodical oscillation of states within a narrow range of vegetation coverage once total phosphorus concentration in inflows is reduced to 0.18 g m−3.