Volatility in the Geographical Structure of Short-Run US Interstate Migration
Volatility in the Geographical Structure of Short-Run US Interstate Migration
复制标题
美国短期州际移民地理结构的波动
DOI：
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发表时间：
1982
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Clark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Clark
移徙往往被认为是一种长期现象。然而，通过对1958-1975年连续工作历史样本的劳动力迁移估计，可以看出，美国的州际迁移在短期内无论是对宏观经济波动的调整还是对地理结构的调整，都是非常不稳定的。一个层次聚类例程是用来分析每年的州际总移民和移民，以确定时间的稳定性和迁移的地理格局的特点估计。各国根据短期经济活动的水平，在不同年份进入不同级别的国家移徙联系树。研究还表明，当国家经济状况恶化时，劳动力供给的调整更加本地化，国家间的相互依赖程度低于经济繁荣时期。Almon分布滞后时间序列回归模型被用来正式测试空间互联性（以州际移民流为代表）和国家波动之间的关系。
Migration is often thought to be a long-run phenomenon. However, it is shown here by means of labor-force migration estimates derived from the Continuous Work History Sample over the period 1958–1975, that US interstate migration is quite volatile over the short run with respect both to its adjustment to macroeconomic fluctuations and to its geographical structure. A hierarchical clustering routine is utilized to analyse yearly estimates of interstate gross in-migration and out-migration so as to identify the temporal stability and characteristics of the geographical patterns of migration. States enter the national migration linkage tree at different levels for different years, depending upon the level of short-run economic activity. It is also shown that when national economic conditions worsen, labor-supply adjustments are more localized and the degree of interstate interdependence is less than in times of economic boom. An Almon distributed-lags time series regression model is used to formally test the relationship between spatial interconnectivity (as represented by interstate migration flows) and national fluctuations.