Export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality
Export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality
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DOI：
10.1080/000368498325930
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发表时间：
1998-03-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Islam, MN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Islam, MN
本文建立了一个多变量误差修正模型来检验1967- 1991年15个亚洲国家出口与经济增长之间的因果关系。基础序列在水平上被测试为非平稳，但在第一差异上是平稳的。因果因素共整合在这些国家只有五个。因果关系检验结果表明，出口扩张导致三分之二的这些国家的增长，修正的因果因素之间的一致性。公共部门规模大、经济发展水平高、不易受外部经济冲击的国家更有可能从出口促进战略中获益。因果推论在整个样本期内相当稳定。
This paper develops a multivariate error-correction model to test the causality between exports and growth in 15 Asian countries, 1967-91. The underlying series are tested as non-stationary in levels but stationary in first differences. The causal factors are cointegrated in five of these countries only. Causality test results indicate that export expansion causes growth in two-third of these countries, corrected for simultaneity between the causal factors. A country with a large public sector, higher level of economic development, and which is less vulnerable to external economic shocks is more likely to reap the benefits of export promotion strategies. The causal inferences are fairly stable over the sample period.