A Financial Social Accounting Matrix for the Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Poverty Analysis: Application to Cameroon with a Fixed-Price Multiplier Analysis
A Financial Social Accounting Matrix for the Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Poverty Analysis: Application to Cameroon with a Fixed-Price Multiplier Analysis
复制标题
用于贫困分析的综合宏观经济模型的金融社会核算矩阵：固定价格乘数分析在喀麦隆的应用
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1393624
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
H. Fofack
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Christian Arnault Emini;H. Fofack
喀麦隆参与了减贫战略文件进程，该进程强调在制定和实施增长和调整战略时更加注重减贫。世界银行最近开发的综合宏观经济贫困分析模型为支持减贫战略文件进程和量化减贫战略提供了一个分析结构。在这一框架的基础上，作者为喀麦隆经济提供了一个详细的金融社会核算矩阵(SAM)，作为构建喀麦隆综合管理和社会核算模式的投入。对这种金融SAM的分析表明，危机期间投资的急剧下降持续到1990年代后期的货币贬值后增长期。持续的低投资意味着持续的高失业率和糟糕的福利指标。作者用基于固定价格乘数分析的模拟来说明这一点，这些模拟强调了在重债穷国倡议框架内减免债务和减少外债还本付息之后，增加公共投资的潜在增长和福利效益。
Cameroon is engaged in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) process, which emphasizes increased focus on poverty reduction in the design and implementation of growth and adjustment strategies. The Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Poverty Analysis (IMMPA) recently developed at the World Bank provides an analytical structure for supporting the PRSP process and quantifying poverty reduction strategies. Drawing on that framework, the authors provide a detailed financial social accounting matrix (SAM) for the Cameroonian economy to serve as input into the construction of an IMMPA model for Cameroon. An analysis of this financial SAM shows that the dramatic fall in investment during the crisis period persisted in the post-devaluation growth period in the late 1990s. Continued low investment has implications for ongoing high unemployment rates and poor welfare indicators. The authors illustrate this with simulations based on fixed-price multiplier analysis that highlight the potential growth and welfare benefits of increased public investment, following hypothetical debt relief and reduction of external debt servicing within the framework of the heavily indebted poor countries initiative.