The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.
The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0047981
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Moat J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davis AP;Gole TW;Baena S;Moat J
气候变化对阿拉比卡咖啡影响的精确建模有限;没有该物种土著种群的数据。在这项研究中，我们模拟了目前和未来的预测分布的土著阿拉比卡，并确定优先事项，以促进适当的决策，保护，监测和未来的研究。使用分布数据，我们进行生物气候建模，并在三个时间间隔（2020年，2050年，2080年）的三种排放情景（A1 B，A2 A，B2 A）下使用HadCM 3气候模型检查未来分布。这些模型显示了对土著阿拉比卡的深刻负面影响。在局部性分析中，最有利的结果是c。到2080年，现有的生物气候适宜地区的数量减少65%，最坏的情况是减少近100%。在面积分析中，最有利的结果是合适的生物气候空间减少38%，最不利的结果是c。到2080年减少90%。根据阿拉比卡已知的发生情况和生态耐受性，生物气候的不适宜性将使种群处于危险之中，导致严重的压力和灭绝的高风险。这项研究为评估气候变化对阿拉比卡咖啡野生种群的影响建立了一个基本基线。具体而言，它：（1）确定和分类预测目前和短期至中期内将受到气候变化威胁的地区和地区（2020-2050年），代表迁地保护的评估重点;（2）确定至少在2080年之前有潜力承受气候变化的“核心地区”，因此可作为咖啡遗传资源的长期原地储藏库;（3）为实地监测气候变化影响提供目标地点（种群）的位置和特征。阿拉比卡咖啡被确认为气候敏感物种，支持现有种植园将受到气候变化负面影响的数据和推断。
Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.