NETWORKS OF SEXUAL CONTACTS - IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PATTERN OF SPREAD OF HIV
NETWORKS OF SEXUAL CONTACTS - IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PATTERN OF SPREAD OF HIV
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DOI：
10.1097/00002030-198912000-00005
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发表时间：
1989-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
MAY, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
GUPTA, S;ANDERSON, RM;MAY, RM
本文通过对艾滋病毒传播动力学数学模型的数值研究，探讨了性接触模式（混合矩阵）对男同性恋社区艾滋病流行模式的影响。讨论了与极端的分类（性活动群体内）和分类（性活动群体之间）混合的性接触网络的可能结构的范围。在流行病的早期阶段，分类混合极端显示出感染发生率的最快速增长，而非分类极端显示出在很长一段时间内产生最大规模的流行病。高群内混合（分类）可能产生多峰流行。研究结果在对艾滋病毒传播的观察模式的解释和性接触模式数据的获取的背景下进行了讨论。
This paper examines the influence of sexual contact patterns (mixing matrices) on the pattern of the AIDS epidemic in a male homosexual community via numerical studies of a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of HIV. A discussion is presented of the range of possible structures of networks of sexual contacts with extremes of assortative (within sexual activity groups) and disassortative (between sexual activity groups) mixing. The assortative mixing extreme is shown to generate the most rapid growth in the incidence of infection in the early stages of the epidemic while the disassortative extreme is shown to generate the epidemic of the largest magnitude over a long period. High within-group mixing (assortative) may generate multi-peak epidemics. The results are discussed in the context of both the interpretation of observed patterns of the spread of HIV and the acquisition of data on sexual contact patterns.